Global Stocks Rally on Oil Stabilization and Crypto Surge

Major U.S. equity indices advanced on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 Index ($SPX) rising 0.38% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) climbing 0.69%. The Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) gained 0.09%, while E-mini S&P futures (ESU26) and September E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQU26) traded higher by 0.37% and 0.08%, respectively.

Stock markets are receiving support as crude oil prices stabilize, which temporarily alleviates inflationary pressures. Oil prices are consolidating below Thursday’s one-month high following comments from Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, who stated that concluding the conflict with dignity would be preferable. Investors are now awaiting Monday’s press conference, where U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent is expected to outline the administration’s plans to isolate Iran’s economy.

Modest profit-taking in semiconductor and AI infrastructure shares is tempering gains in the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, rising bond yields are exerting downward pressure on the broader market, with the 10-year Treasury note yield increasing 3 basis points to 4.73%.

U.S. economic data released today presents a mixed picture for equities. The August S&P manufacturing PMI declined by 0.7 points to 53.2, falling short of expectations for a steady reading at 53.9. However, the August S&P services PMI surprised to the upside, rising 2.8 points to 56.8—significantly stronger than the anticipated decline to 54.0, and marking the fastest pace of expansion in four and a half years.

Cryptocurrency-related equities are leading market gains today, propelled by Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) surging more than 6% to a three-month high. The benchmark digital asset has rallied over 20% this week, driven by renewed institutional buying following the U.S. Treasury’s announcement of at least doubled long-dated bond buybacks. This catalyst triggered a massive short-covering rally, with data from Coinglass indicating that over $2 billion in short Bitcoin perpetual futures positions have been liquidated since Wednesday.

Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to restrict crude supplies, keeping the Strait of Hormuz closed and sustaining upward pressure on oil prices. October WTI crude oil prices (CLV26) remained largely unchanged today, despite Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian’s statement that ending the war immediately would be preferable now that Iran possesses strength and dignity. Crude prices previously surged to a one-month high on Thursday after former President Trump threatened Iran and its trading partners with economic isolation, stating that any nation providing aid to Iran would face severe consequences. Treasury Secretary Bessent confirmed that the administration will unveil its strategy to isolate Iran and its trading partners on Monday.

Former President Trump has indicated no interest in extending the expired agreement with Iran, which dims the outlook for a swift reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also noted that the U.S. naval blockade on Iranian ports is applying significant pressure on the regime, though he provided no specific timeline for resolving the ongoing conflict.

Earlier on Monday, U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated that the nation is playing the “long game” with Iran, suggesting that de-escalation is not imminent. This stance could further constrain Middle Eastern crude supplies.

To date, there are no signs of progress toward a U.S.-Iran agreement to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz. An Iranian military spokesperson asserted last Thursday that no vessel can safely transit the strait without Iran’s authorization and supervision, dismissing former President Trump’s claims of U.S. control over the waterway as “nothing more than lies.” This rebuttal followed Trump’s assertion the previous Tuesday that the U.S. has “total control over the Hormuz Strait” and that “we own it.”

The outlook for robust second-quarter earnings remains a key bullish driver for the equity markets. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, the S&P 500 is on track for nearly 32% earnings growth in Q2, significantly outpacing the initial 23% projection and representing almost four times the average non-Covid growth rate since Q4 2013. AI spending is anticipated to be the primary driver of these gains, with AI infrastructure stocks expected to contribute nearly 60% of the index’s EPS growth. Thus far, corporate results have been strong, with 86% of the 468 reporting S&P 500 companies surpassing consensus estimates.

Market pricing currently implies a 39% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on September 15-16.

Global equity markets finished with mixed results. The Euro Stoxx 50 index rose 0.64%, China’s Shanghai Composite edged up 0.04%, while Japan’s Nikkei-225 Stock Average declined by 0.30%.

Interest Rates

September 10-year T-notes (ZNU6) fell by 6 ticks today. The 10-year Treasury yield rose 2.6 basis points to 4.730%. Treasury notes are under pressure from the stock market rally, which has dampened safe-haven demand. Furthermore, the stronger-than-expected August services PMI, which expanded at its fastest pace in 4.5 years, is further weighing on fixed-income prices.

European government bond yields drifted lower today. The 10-year German bund yield stood unchanged at 3.250%, while the 10-year UK gilt yield fell 1.9 basis points to 5.048%.

The Eurozone August S&P manufacturing PMI surprised to the upside, rising 0.9 points to 52.8, easily beating forecasts of a decline to 51.8 and representing the fastest expansion in 4.25 years. Additionally, the August composite PMI ticked up 0.1 point to 52.1, surpassing expectations of a drop to 51.7.

ECB consumer inflation expectations for July showed a modest decline, with the 1-year CPI expectations easing to 2.9% from 3.0% in June, and the 3-year expectations dropping to 2.7% from 2.8%.

The Eurozone August consumer confidence index surprised to the upside, rising 0.4 points to a six-month high of -15.5, compared to expectations of a decline to -16.0.

In the UK, July retail sales excluding auto fuel fell by 0.9% month-over-month, weaker than the expected 0.5% decline and marking the largest drop in 14 months.

Markets are currently pricing in a 94% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike by the European Central Bank at its next policy meeting on September 10.

US Stock Movers

Among U.S. stock movers, cryptocurrency-exposed equities are soaring as Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) extends its sharp weekly rally, climbing over 6% to a three-month high. Coinbase Global (COIN) surged more than 9%, and Strategy (MSTR) rose over 6% to lead gainers in the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, Circle Internet Group (CRCL) jumped more than 6%, while MARA Holdings (MARA) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) gained over 1%.

Mining shares are rallying in tandem with sharp increases in copper, gold, and silver prices. Freeport-McMoRan (FCX) rose more than 5%, while Southern Copper (SCCO) and AngloGold Ashanti (AU) climbed over 4%. Newmont Corp (NEM) and Barrick Gold (B) also posted gains of more than 2%.

Conversely, select semiconductor and AI infrastructure stocks are declining today, restricting broader market upside. Marvell Technology (MRVL) fell more than 6% to lead losses on the Nasdaq 100. Additionally, Applied Materials (AMAT), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), ARM Holdings Plc (ARM), Intel (INTC), and Lam Research (LRCX) dropped more than 2%. KLA Corp (KLAC), Western Digital (WDC), Micron Technology (MU), and Seagate Technology Holdings Plc (STX) also fell more than 1%.

Moderna (MRNA) surged more than 13% to lead the S&P 500’s gainers, while Merck & Co (MRK) rose over 2% to top the Dow Jones Industrials. This positive momentum stems from Wednesday’s announcement that their combined cancer vaccine and Keytruda therapy successfully reduced melanoma recurrence in a major late-stage trial.

Ross Stores (ROST) climbed over 3% after reporting second-quarter sales of $6.26 billion, beating the consensus estimate of $6.16 billion. The company also raised its 2027 EPS guidance to a range of $8.61 to $8.77, up from the previous forecast of $7.50 to $7.74.

Parsons Corp (PSN) gained more than 3% after Baird upgraded the stock to Outperform from Neutral, establishing a $57 price target.

Teradyne (TER) fell more than 3% following a downgrade by Baird to Neutral from Outperform.

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