Gold Pulls Back From Three-Month Peak Near $4,600 Following US PCE Inflation Report

Gold (XAU/USD) slipped to around $4,610 during the early Asian session on Thursday, retreating from a three-month high after US inflation data largely matched expectations, keeping the prospect of a Federal Reserve interest-rate hike next month firmly in play.

Figures released by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) on Wednesday showed the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index holding steady at 3.7% year-over-year in July, slightly hotter than the 3.6% consensus forecast.

The core PCE Price Index, which strips out volatile food and energy components, remained unchanged at 3.3%, matching market expectations. On a monthly basis, both the headline and core PCE Price Indexes rose by 0.2% in July.

“Gold’s price action up to today’s data was just some profit taking… PCE data came in largely in line with expectations, so we’re consolidating within yesterday’s range at this point,” said Peter Grant, vice president and senior metals strategist at Zaner Metals.

Markets are now pricing in roughly a 38% probability of a 25-basis-point Fed rate hike in September, up from 36% prior to the data release, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Traders are bracing for remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh at the Jackson Hole Symposium on Friday, which could provide further guidance on the interest-rate outlook. Any hawkish signals from Fed officials may pressure the yellow metal in the near term.

Long Bond Squeeze Fails to Shake Gold’s Resolve

Analysts at Rabobank noted that, as Bloomberg reported, “Short Squeeze in US Long Bonds Shows ‘Bessent Put’ at Work.” They added that, despite the sharp rally in long-dated US Treasuries, “Gold is not showing signs of capitulation,” highlighting the precious metal’s resilience even as bond markets respond to shifting sentiment.

Technical Analysis: Gold

On the daily chart, XAU/USD maintains a bullish near-term bias, with price holding above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the 20-day Bollinger middle band, keeping the broader uptrend well supported. The latest Bollinger configuration shows price pressing toward the upper half of the envelope, while the 14-period Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 67.64 sits just below overbought territory, indicating strong but increasingly stretched upside momentum.

On the topside, immediate resistance is aligned with the 20-day Bollinger upper band at $4,745, where corrective selling could emerge if bulls hesitate to extend the rally. On the downside, initial support is seen near the rising 100-day SMA at $4,380, followed closely by the Bollinger middle band at $4,365, which together form a dense demand zone guarding the recent advance. A deeper pullback would expose the lower Bollinger band at $3,985.14 as a more distant but notable structural floor.

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