Google is advising travelers on the optimal timing for booking holiday trips to reduce airfare costs, drawing on historical data from Google Flights.
The technology company released a blog post Monday outlining how users can leverage its tools regardless of whether their destination and dates are fixed or if they have the flexibility to adjust their plans.
The post addresses a common dilemma: purchasing tickets now or waiting to see if fares decrease in the coming days or weeks, offering guidance for both scenarios.
“When your dates are already set, booking early is the safest bet to protect your itinerary,” wrote James Byers, Google’s group product manager for Search. “But if your top priority is scoring the lowest possible price, you can use historical booking trends in a couple of ways.”
Google offered tips for finding the lowest airfares and when to book based on which holiday travelers are planning a trip for, as well as the destination. (Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images)
Byers’ post suggests travelers use Google Flights or AI Mode in Search to identify the most cost-effective booking window based on destination and dates.
This provides insight into how current pricing compares to previous years and predicts whether fares are likely to rise or fall before departure.
For those with flexible schedules, the analysis utilizes five years of aggregated Google Flights data to identify how far in advance common U.S. departure flights typically reach their lowest average price during holiday scenarios.
Domestic flights generally reach their lowest price 39 days before departure, within a range of 22 to 57 days. Byers noted the window is slightly broader this year than last, though 39 days remains the sweet spot.
Google’s data shows Thanksgiving airfares are cheapest in October, while Christmas airfares tend to be found in late October and mid-November. (Matthew Hatcher/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
International flights typically hit rock bottom 89 days before departure. However, the report notes the average price drop between 50 and 133 days out is negligible, meaning international travelers should book as soon as possible.
Thanksgiving travelers usually find the best rates 34 days prior to departure, within a low range of 21 to 57 days, suggesting October yields the cheapest options.
Christmas flights tend to bottom out 56 days before departure, within a range of 33 to 67 days. Byers noted the low point is five days earlier than last year, with the best deals falling between late October and mid-November.
“Our best recommendation is to book your holiday flights ASAP. October is when Thanksgiving flights tend to be cheapest, and this year, the sweet spot for low Christmas fares has shifted even earlier,” Byers wrote.
For those planning trips next year, Google’s analysis indicates spring break airfares reach their lowest point 50 days before departure, within a range of 29 to 64 days for March or April trips, a week earlier than last year.
Travelers planning summer vacations can wait longer, as the lowest prices hit 21 days before departure, within a range of 20 to 47 days for July or August trips.
Google also provided guidance for international travel.
Trips to Europe generally align with broader international trends, with the lowest prices arriving 90 days out. However, Byers notes that waiting rarely yields savings, as the low price range begins 49 days or more before departure.
Travel to Mexico or the Caribbean reaches lowest prices 43 days before departure, within a low range of 24 to 69 days. The report notes the sweet spot for these airfares is much closer to the departure date compared to European travel.
