Gulf States Pursue Regional Security Framework to De-escalate Tensions with Iran

Gulf nations have intensified diplomatic efforts with Iran to lower tensions across the Middle East, driven by concerns over potential US military strikes on Tehran and the escalating conflict between Saudi Arabia and Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen.

In a bid to avert a full-scale war, high-ranking Iranian officials met on Monday with diplomats from Qatar and representatives from Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye—the three signatories of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed in August.

The high stakes of these negotiations were highlighted by the presence of Saudi Defence Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman Al Saud in Tehran, appearing just days after Houthi forces targeted Saudi oil facilities, ports, and airports.

Simultaneously, Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi, during a visit to the University of Cambridge, proposed a regional security framework. Albusaidi advocated for a “non-aggression pact” between Iran and the Gulf states, suggesting a shift away from the United States as the primary security provider for the region.

While Gulf nations are keen to avoid further conflict—which has previously disrupted global energy supplies and hindered maritime passage through the Strait of Hormuz—significant questions remain regarding the feasibility of such an agreement and how it would impact the strategic relationship between the US and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

Regional Security or De-escalation?

US President Donald Trump recently reiterated that Washington might launch another military operation against Iran, as rising fuel costs create political pressure ahead of the November 3 midterm elections. In response, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) warned of a more forceful reaction to any US aggression, increasing the risk of a broader escalation.

Although the meetings in Tehran represent the first high-level contact between Iran and the Mecca pact nations since the US-Israel conflict with Iran began on February 28, reports indicate that a formal agreement has not yet been reached.

According to Reuters, Qatari mediators presented a draft deal to Iran on Sunday. However, Iranian officials later stated that the proposals were unacceptable, particularly regarding Tehran’s lack of flexibility on the nuclear issue.

Saudi political analyst Khaled Batarfi suggested that the visit to Tehran served as a “last warning” from Saudi Arabia to address regional concerns, but noted that Iran has remained resistant. “The gap is wide, and what makes it worse is the complete lack of trust,” Batarfi told Al Jazeera.

Some experts believe these diplomatic efforts are unlikely to result in a permanent security infrastructure. Aniseh Bassiri Tabrizi, an associate fellow at Chatham House, told Al Jazeera that a comprehensive regional framework is unlikely in the near future. She noted that while flexible, small groups of countries are seeking bilateral or multilateral solutions, a broader framework would require a shared vision that the GCC countries themselves do not entirely possess.

Challenges Ahead

Hamidreza Azizi, a senior analyst at the International Crisis Group, noted that Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, and Turkiye are united by the fear that a protracted US-Iran confrontation would further destabilize the region.

“The primary obstacle is the fundamental disagreement between Tehran and Washington over the sequence of commitments,” Azizi explained to Al Jazeera. “The US demands concessions on the nuclear issue, while Tehran insists its conditions for ending the war must be satisfied first.”

Azizi added that while regional mediation could potentially bridge this gap through interim arrangements, the willingness of mediators does not guarantee that the primary combatants are ready to compromise.

Regarding a new security order, Azizi observed that there is no consensus on its structure or the future role of the US. While Iran has long pushed for a security architecture that minimizes US military presence, Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states remain deeply integrated into the US security apparatus.

“While the recent conflict has raised doubts about the reliability of US security guarantees, this has led these countries to diversify their partnerships rather than fundamentally abandon their strategic alignments with Washington,” Azizi concluded.

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