Haiti’s Democratic Future Remains Elusive Amid Escalating Organized Crime and Political Chaos

As criminal governance becomes increasingly entrenched in Haiti, the question of the nation’s return to democracy is no longer a matter of simple timing, but of fundamental feasibility.

During a briefing on October 19, Carlos Ruiz Massieu, the United Nations’ top representative to Haiti, addressed the UN Security Council, stating that the country remains far from conducting its first national elections since 2016.

“Announcing new election dates without a realistic assessment of their feasibility will only further erode public confidence and the credibility of Haitian institutions,” Massieu warned the council.

This grim assessment arrived just two weeks after the country’s electoral council (CEP) canceled the general elections, which had been scheduled for December. No new date has been set for elections that have been repeatedly postponed since the July 2021 assassination of Haitian President Jovenel Moïse, who was ambushed and killed by a group of Colombian mercenaries. While the assassination has been attributed to a power struggle among the political elite, it is the nation’s powerful gangs that remain at the forefront of the battle for control over Haiti.

With each delay, these armed groups further entrench their chaotic grip on power. According to a final report issued in September by the UN Security Council’s Panel of Experts, gangs now control approximately 70% of the capital and have expanded deep into the countryside. Violence has become particularly severe in the Artibonite province, the country’s second-largest electoral district after Port-au-Prince, where massacres and hostage-taking have become commonplace.

Forced displacement and sexual violence have become primary tools of warfare. The United Nations reports that 1.5 million people—nearly a quarter of the country’s population—have been displaced from their homes, including almost 800,000 children. In its final report, the UN documented nearly 2,500 cases of sexual assault, with 64% classified as gang rape.

At the forefront of this violence is Viv Ansanm, a coalition formed in 2023 by the G9 and GPèp alliances, which were previously the country’s most formidable gang networks. Competing with them is the Gran Grif gang, which operates independently in the Artibonite province and has surged in recent months. Both groups have been designated as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs) by the United States government.

These criminal networks are not operating in isolation. In an annex to its final report, the UN Panel noted that nearly one million rounds of ammunition stolen from the police stocks of neighboring Dominican Republic were recovered in 2024, highlighting persistent links and support from elements within the Haitian security forces. Furthermore, the report detailed how political and economic elites, including several former senators, have supplied Viv Ansanm with weapons and ammunition, alongside providing political and judicial protection.

Among those implicated is former legislator Youri Latortue, who was called as a witness in the Moïse assassination case but was cleared of direct wrongdoing. Despite convictions of several alleged hitmen and ancillary figures, the investigation has stalled as prosecutors struggle to identify and prosecute the intellectual masterminds behind the assassination.

The investigation saw a major breakthrough in September when Haiti extradited Joseph Félix Badio, a former anti-corruption prosecutor, to the United States. US authorities allege that Badio coordinated the attack via radio, provided weapons to the Colombian mercenaries, and bribed presidential guards to allow access to the suite where Moïse was assassinated. Captured in 2023 after two years on the run, Badio is hoped to cooperate with US authorities to unravel the conspiracy.

In the meantime, a makeshift “National Pact” was assembled in February with remnants of Haiti’s political parties following the expiration of the Transitional Presidential Council’s mandate. This fragile governing body strives to maintain basic order, yet its very legitimacy hinges on its ability to orchestrate the country’s first national elections in a decade.

However, the prospect of holding these elections remains highly uncertain. Haiti’s National Police force has been decimated by casualties and resignations. While the United States has attempted to train new officers, and the United Nations is deploying a proposed Gang Suppression Force to replace the previously deployed Kenyan police, private security firms equipped with drones have also entered the conflict.

The results of these efforts have been deadly and largely ineffective. In May, the UN Panel of Experts reported that government and private security forces were responsible for 69% of deaths and injuries during the first quarter of 2026. However, this dynamic shifted in the second quarter, illustrating the highly retaliatory nature of the conflict and highlighting the immense distance Haiti must travel before it can successfully hold democratic elections.

Cover image: Jimmy Cherizier, alias Barbecue, a former police officer who heads the G9 gang coalition, in a march on July 26, 2021 to demand justice for slain Haitian President Jovenel Moïse. Credit: AP/Matias Delacroix

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