mwb Research reiterated its Sell rating and €1.80 price target on HelloFresh (ETR: HFG), stating that the meal‑kit company’s third‑quarter results explain the weak sales but do not yet indicate a recovery.
The €1.80 target implies a 46% downside from Thursday’s closing price of €3.33.
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HelloFresh reported third‑quarter revenue of €1.43 bn, down 11.3% at constant currency, broadly in line with its September profit warning.
Orders fell 17.9%, partially offset by a 7.5% rise in average order value, driven by selective price increases, add‑ons and premium recipes.
The company reduced marketing spend by 24%, including a 32.8% cut in its ready‑to‑eat meals business.
Analyst Alexander Zienkowicz noted that management linked the deeper cuts to weaker‑than‑planned profitability per order, citing higher ingredient and cooking costs after rapid menu expansion. HelloFresh decided not to invest in customer acquisition at what it described as “suboptimal unit economics.”
“It remains to be seen what happens once contribution economics normalize and marketing spend is stepped up again,” Zienkowicz wrote.
Management expects margins to improve in the fourth quarter and maintained its 2026 guidance for a 9‑11% revenue decline and adjusted EBITDA of €350‑€370 m. mwb said revenue is tracking around the midpoint, while EBITDA is moving toward the lower half of the range.
The analyst warned that the real test will come in 2027, when higher marketing spending must prove the company can win back customers and stabilize orders.
“Q3 provides a plausible explanation for the weak top line, but does not yet demonstrate a recovery,” he concluded.
