Historical data indicates that while XRP might build on its recent momentum against Bitcoin in September 2026, the cryptocurrency could experience a notable correction in October.
Despite a brief period of outperformance during a market rebound two weeks ago, XRP has continued to lag behind Bitcoin. The XRP/BTC pair currently trades at 0.00001754, representing a 48% decline from its January 2025 high of 0.00003415.
Market commentator EGRAG Crypto suggests that XRP’s relative weakness against Bitcoin might persist through October 2026. However, he anticipates that XRP will build on its 4% gain in August 2026, potentially mounting another upward move against Bitcoin in September 2026.
XRP Could See a September Rally Against Bitcoin
EGRAG recently highlighted a strong seasonal pattern for the XRP/BTC pair during the final months of the year. Historically, based on monthly averages, XRP has gained an average of 17.0% in September, while October has recorded an average decline of 19.6%. The trend then shifts positive again, with November averaging a 30.5% gain and December averaging a 44.1% gain.
However, EGRAG emphasizes that the sequence of months is more significant than the averages themselves. Historically, September has marked a rotation, October has brought a shakeout, November has seen expansion, and December has produced further acceleration.
If this pattern repeats in 2026, XRP could begin gaining ground against Bitcoin in September before facing another decline in October.
October Has Been a Difficult Month for XRP Against Bitcoin
October has historically been one of the weaker months for XRP against Bitcoin. The XRP/BTC pair finished lower in 11 of the last 13 Octobers, making it a critical period for investors to monitor.
However, an October decline does not necessarily signal a prolonged bearish phase. Historical data shows that sharp losses in October have often been followed by much stronger performance in November.
For example, XRP/BTC fell 22.4% in October 2020, only to surge 93.8% in November. A similar pattern occurred in 2024, when the pair dropped 24.9% in October before rising an impressive 179.2% in November.
These historical moves suggest that an October correction would not automatically weaken the broader outlook for XRP. Instead, it could form part of a larger rotation that eventually favors XRP against Bitcoin.
XRP Has Lagged Bitcoin for Most of 2026
XRP’s performance against Bitcoin in 2026 highlights how much the pair has struggled. XRP/BTC fell 0.5% in January and another 1.8% in February. The decline continued with a 4.4% drop in March and an 8.8% drop in April.
XRP managed to post a modest 1.0% gain in May, but the recovery was short-lived. The pair fell another 2.0% in June and 4.8% in July. August finally brought some relief, as XRP/BTC gained nearly 4.0%.
This leaves XRP with a long record of underperformance against Bitcoin for most of 2026, despite the improvement seen in August.
August Breakout Could Set the Tone
The key question remains whether the 4% gain in August 2026 marks the start of a broader XRP/BTC rotation. EGRAG believes that a break above the pair’s August high could provide an important technical signal.
If this breakout occurs, XRP could continue its recovery against Bitcoin in September 2026. The move could then face resistance in October, aligning with the historical shakeout pattern, before XRP potentially sees stronger performance in November and December.
While history does not guarantee that XRP/BTC will follow the same trajectory in 2026, XRP’s prolonged weakness against Bitcoin and the recent August rebound may be setting the stage for a significant shift.
