Houthi Gains on the Red Sea Force Gulf States to Reconsider Iran Policy

ANKARA, Sept 13 (Reuters) – The Houthis’ seizure of Yemen’s Red Sea coast is altering the Gulf’s balance of power, strengthening Iran’s position and leaving Saudi Arabia and its neighbours with a difficult decision: endure rising costs or pursue an accommodation with Tehran.

By establishing control overlooking Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world’s most vital shipping routes, the Iran-aligned movement has created another point of pressure, threatening Saudi oil exports that had been redirected away from the Strait of Hormuz.

Regional officials and analysts say the logic is clear: as the Houthis disrupt Red Sea shipping and Iran restricts traffic through Hormuz, Tehran and its allies can push up oil prices, intensify inflation and reduce the region’s ability to rely on Washington to resolve the crisis.

The strategy is intended to confront Gulf governments with a stark choice: absorb the growing economic damage caused by attacks on energy exports and Iranian strikes, or engage Iran to safeguard trade, energy supplies and economic stability.

“The Houthi capture of strategic islands near Bab el-Mandeb is a game changer,” said Middle East analyst Fawaz Gerges. “It shifts the balance of power and gives them far greater geopolitical and economic leverage over Saudi Arabia, the Gulf, the United States and global trade.”

Riyadh had rerouted much of its crude through Red Sea ports after the war effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula. On Friday, however, it shut the pipeline carrying that oil after it came under attack.

President Donald Trump’s reported refusal to approve a Saudi request for U.S. strikes against the Houthis, combined with mounting economic costs, is strengthening the view in some Gulf capitals that negotiations with Tehran have become a necessity rather than an option, regional sources told Reuters.

That shift could become apparent as early as Monday, when Gulf foreign ministers meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi in Oman as part of an Omani-Iranian initiative to establish a temporary arrangement for managing shipping through Hormuz.

A Gulf source said Saudi Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan would attend, while Qatar, the United Arab Emirates and Iraq were also expected to take part. The talks are aimed at agreeing on a temporary mechanism for Hormuz and could also explore longer-term arrangements.

“It is a meeting to discuss the various proposals on the table,” the source said, speaking anonymously because of the sensitivity of the issue.

“Even if there is agreement tomorrow, it still has to move forward within the framework of the memorandum of understanding. The United States and Iran will need to agree on confidence-building measures and sanctions. The sequencing will be very important,” the source said, referring to an interim U.S.-Iran agreement reached in June.

A Western diplomat said Kuwait would also attend the meeting, but Bahrain would not.

Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian said on Sunday that he had held productive talks with UAE Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan in New Delhi on the sidelines of the BRICS leaders’ summit.

“We agreed to put the past aside and look to the future, and to how we can build that future together,” he said.

The dilemma facing the Gulf states is rooted in geography. Decades of confrontation have failed to change a basic fact: Iran’s position beside the region’s key energy and trade routes makes it an unavoidable participant in any Gulf security equation.

Whatever Gulf leaders think of the Islamic Republic, it remains a power they cannot ignore. The conflict triggered by U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran has also dismantled decades of diplomatic efforts aimed at containing it.

Asked on Sunday whether he was concerned about Gulf states meeting with Iran, Trump said the decision was theirs to make.

Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said the central question for Gulf governments may increasingly be not whether they trust Iran, but how they can protect their interests and endure a conflict that Washington cannot quickly bring to an end.

That could drive them toward parallel diplomacy with Tehran and, over time, toward a broader security strategy that relies less exclusively on the United States.

“The Gulf states are confronting the basic reality that they may have to make a deal with Iran on their own, regardless of whether it upsets the Americans, because the United States cannot get them out of this quagmire,” he said.

The escalation has revived a struggle that long predates the current U.S.-Iran conflict. The Houthis, who draw support from Yemen’s Zaydi Shi’ite minority, fought several wars with Saudi Arabia before capturing Sanaa in 2014, prompting a Saudi-led military intervention the following year.

Despite years of air strikes and cross-border fighting, the movement survived, expanded its capabilities and emerged as one of Iran’s most effective regional allies.

The Houthis are pursuing their own long-running conflict with Riyadh while exploiting a strategic position that gives them influence far beyond Yemen and increases their value to Tehran.

“The Houthis are not traditional proxies,” said Aaron David Miller, a former U.S. negotiator. “They can weaponise geography and have a dramatic impact on the international economy and the global oil market.”

One regional official described the Houthi advance as the latest stage in a carefully managed Iranian strategy.

“For Iran, this is a chess game. They plan what comes next. They do not press all their buttons at once in a panic,” the official said.

“The Houthis are the only Iranian-aligned proxy with formidable operational capabilities left.”

Washington’s economic pressure on Iran is having an effect, but a Gulf source said its unintended consequence is to push America’s regional partners to reconsider whether confrontation with Tehran remains sustainable.

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