The impeachment trial of Filipino Vice President Sara Duterte, set to begin Monday, is poised to shape the Philippines’ 2028 presidential election and intensify divisions between two influential political families, causing significant turmoil in the Senate.
The proceedings will not only decide Duterte’s eligibility for the presidency but also evaluate public trust in the country’s institutions and political leadership. Analysts emphasize that the trial’s perceived legitimacy will hinge on whether it is viewed as impartial or driven by partisan agendas.
“If the public perceives the trial as politically motivated, doubts about its validity may persist regardless of the verdict,” said Ederson Tapia, a public administration professor at the University of Makati.
The trial’s duration remains uncertain, as procedural disagreements, witness testimonies, and evidence presentations will likely influence its pace. The 2012 impeachment of a former chief justice lasted four months, and a conviction here would require support from at least 16 of the Senate’s 24 members.
Recent surveys indicate Duterte as a frontrunner for the 2028 election, though a guilty verdict could derail her presidential aspirations.
Political Expert Emphasizes Fair Proceedings for Public Trust
“A fair trial process, if perceived as such, could bolster Duterte’s standing,” Tapia added.
The trial, marking the first impeachment of a vice president, accuses Duterte of misusing public funds, accumulating unexplained wealth, and threatening President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., the first lady, and a former House Speaker.
Duterte, daughter of former President Rodrigo Duterte, denies all charges and frames the impeachment as politically orchestrated.
“That is to be expected,” said Congressman Robert “Ace” Barbers, prosecution spokesperson. “The evidence will speak for itself.”
Jean Encinas-Franco, a University of the Philippines political science professor, underscored the importance of balanced proceedings. She referenced the 2000-2001 impeachment of President Joseph Estrada, where the Senate’s refusal to release key evidence sparked public outrage, halted the trial, and catalyzed mass protests that led to Estrada’s ouster.
“Both sides must present their cases thoroughly to prevent public perception of bias,” she stated.
Duterte’s legal team, led by Michael Poa, claims readiness to counter the allegations as unfounded. However, Poa declined to confirm Duterte’s attendance at Monday’s session, noting the summons allows representation by counsel.
From Political Alliance to Open Conflict
Marcos and Duterte, descendants of two prominent political dynasties, campaigned together in 2022. Their alliance has since fractured amid escalating tensions, particularly following Rodrigo Duterte’s arrest and transfer to ICC custody in March.
The rift has permeated the Senate, complicating the trial’s dynamics.
In May, amid preparations to receive the House’s impeachment complaint, Duterte ally Senator Ronald “Bato” dela Rosa reappeared after months of absence, casting the deciding vote to install Alan Peter Cayetano as Senate president.
Dela Rosa remained in the Senate briefly before disappearing on May 14, hours after gunfire disrupted parliamentary proceedings. His current location is unknown.
Cayetano, Marcos’ 2016 running mate, and Rodrigo Duterte, currently in The Hague to face ICC charges tied to his anti-drug campaign, are both accused of crimes. Dela Rosa, the ex-national police chief during the crackdown, which killed thousands, and both have denied wrongdoing.
A month later, senators from an opposing faction secured enough votes to elect Senator Sherwin Gatchalian as Senate president.
While infighting revealed Senate alliances, analysts caution that these divisions may not strongly predict how senators will vote during the impeachment trial.
“Impeachment imposes distinct constitutional duties and incentives compared to leadership contests,” Tapia noted.
The trial’s outcome could also impact the Marcos family’s choice for a 2028 standard-bearer, as Marcos is constitutionally barred from seeking re-election.
