In shadow of war, Israelis to decide if hard-right turn is permanent

[Israel Faces Decisive Election to Determine Future of Right-Wing Politics]

• The trauma from the October 7 Hamas attack remains significant, influencing public sentiment and military policies in Israel
• Netanyahu is facing a tight race amid ongoing military conflict, including operations in Gaza and tensions with Iran and Hezbollah

Updated 6 min 12 sec ago

October 18, 2026 06:32

JERUSALEM: Three years after suffering their deadliest single attack, Israelis will deliver their verdict on veteran Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in an October 27 election that could decide if the country moves definitively into hard-right nationalism.

The trauma of October 7, 2023 remains raw across Israel. Faded stickers bearing the haunting smiles of young people killed by Hamas cover station walls and lampposts, and at bustling restaurants, patrons dine with assault rifles now liberally permitted.

Netanyahu, Israel’s longest-serving prime minister whose poll figures indicate a narrow lead, is seeking a renewed mandate after leading a multi-front regional war in response to the October 7 strike, with Israel reducing Gaza to ruins, occupying parts of Lebanon, and conducting extensive bombing campaigns against Iran with U.S. assistance.

The relentless Gaza campaign has triggered pariah status in many formerly friendly Western nations, and Netanyahu personally faces an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court.

Even though the public largely supports the war’s objectives, domestic fallout has proven deeply divisive, strengthening the hand of Netanyahu’s far-right allies who aim to transform Israel into a religious-nationalist Jewish state.

“I believe these elections represent the future of the state in a literal sense,” noted Gideon Rahat, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem affiliated with the Israel Democracy Institute.

Netanyahu’s government has accelerated settlement expansion in the occupied West Bank, where settlers operating under the guidance of far-right National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir have attacked Palestinian civilians on their land, receiving only sporadic official intervention.

“A state lacking exclusive control over military force is effectively a failed state,” Rahat argued.

Turning 77 on October 21, Netanyahu has held office on and off for over nineteen years.

The shrewd political operator regained power in December 2022, bringing numerous previously shunned ultranationalists into government and swiftly attempting to restrain the judiciary—a body currently investigating corruption allegations that could result in imprisonment for him.

Proposed reforms sparked some of the largest protests in Israel’s modern history in the months preceding the Hamas assault.

Political Landscape

Everyone in the country holds a vigorous, often polarized, opinion about Netanyahu; supporters either love him intensely or despise him completely.

“Whichever side you lean toward regarding Netanyahu, ask yourself what drives those emotions,” observed Alon Ykter, a political scientist at Tel Aviv University.

Anti-Netanyahu coalitions unite primarily through shared discontent with his leadership.

His most formidable challenge in polls comes from former military chief Gadi Eisenkot—often characterized as its antithesis—who aims to unite centrists rather than foment mass support, presenting himself as a measured speaker with limited fluency in English and lacking Netanyahu’s combative rhetorical flair.

Eisenkot and other opposition leaders have centered their critiques on Netanyahu’s failures to prevent October 7.

“Netanyahu may possess excellent command of English, yet even that skill did not stop us from sustaining the October 7 tragedy,” Eisenkot declared in Hebrew, addressing participants at a security conference convened by Reichman University.

Faced with contradictory circumstances, Netanyahu’s son was killed in the Gaza conflict, creating an implicit contrast with his younger son Yair—a globally connected social-media influencer.

The opposition has primarily avoided direct criticism of Netanyahu’s strategic decisions regarding the war, a defensive posture unlikely to succeed in a nation where only 21% of citizens identify as left-of-center.

Eisenkot, who served as military chief during the 2006 Lebanon War, championed the Israeli doctrine of employing overwhelming force even against civilian infrastructure in territories frequented by militant groups such as Hezbollah.

Opposition leaders have shifted focus toward social concerns, particularly Netanyahu’s close alliance with ultra-Orthodox Jewish communities—a rapidly expanding demographic fueled by high birth rates and priorities emphasizing Saturday holy days.

Although personally secular, Netanyahu permits certain religious students to exempt themselves from mandatory military service, prompting particular resentment when strained reservists endure multiple deployment cycles.

Former opposition leader Naftali Bennett, who served briefly as prime minister from 2021‑2022, vowed to eliminate all exceptions to military duty and warned that deep societal fissures threaten to drag the nation toward “slow-motion death.”

Hardline Appeal

Amid widespread condemnation of Netanyahu post‑October 7, for many Israeli citizens the conflict’s aftermath demonstrates perceived governmental stability.

Despite casualties from Iranian and Hezbollah retaliations, fighting paused in Gaza while Israel continues strikes on the territory, leaving Hamas intact.

Israel’s economy has experienced vigorous growth since October 7, with construction proliferating across major cities and the stock market surging, driven by tech and defense sectors.

Neriah Yarchi, a 19‑year‑old barber from Bat Yam near Tel Aviv, matured politically after the October 7 tragedy. He expressed intention to endorse far‑right finance minister Bezalel Smotrich, who advocates for the voluntary evacuation of Gaza’s two million residents.

“If Gaza had belonged to us, they would not have had an opportunity to infiltrate from within and there would have been no massacre,” Yarchi stated.

Netanyahu has leveraged his global profile, deploying Likud party materials featuring leader Zohran Mamdani of New York City—a notable critic of Israeli policy—to suggest “they want Netanyahu to lose. Do not allow that to happen.”

Meanwhile, Netanyahu has repeatedly vowed never to align with parties representing Arab Israelites, who constitute roughly one‑fifth of the population and may increase turnout ahead of the highly contested November poll, given the staunchly anti‑Arab rhetoric projected by several of Netanyahu’s ministers.

Should the upcoming election produce a closely contested outcome, forming a governing coalition could prove to require weeks—or even months—of negotiation.

Eisenkot has indicated he would not partner with Arab political parties or remain allied with Netanyahu, although skeptics argue his refusal may depend on broader context.

Uriel Reichman, a former legislator who established the eponymous academic institution, testified before Eisenkot that a Netanyahu victory could cement Israel’s trajectory toward a durable right‑wing regime.

He drew parallels to nations like Turkey, where an elected populist subsequently packed the government with loyalists while rendering independent institutions subservient, warning that such transformations prove exceptionally difficult to reverse once instituted.

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