Jackson Blake’s Ascent: Carolina Hurricanes Forward Nears Superstar Status

It is time to discuss Carolina Hurricanes winger Jackson Blake. The question is no longer whether he will become a superstar, but when. He has 14 points in 14 games, though only three goals. That is not a criticism of Blake; rather, it shows how much more he has to offer. At just 23, Blake is displaying his talent more consistently, raising the question: Can the Hurricanes’ emerging star reach true superstar status?

Unlimited Potential

In terms of pure ability, Blake is among the best on the Hurricanes’ roster. Consider the goal he scored in the 2-1 win over the Boston Bruins. He drove to the front of the net, slipped the puck between Matthew Poitras’s skate and stick, and beat Jeremy Swayman’s pads to the far post. That shift followed one in which he skated out of the box and deftly maneuvered around J.J. Peterka. Blake’s ability to elude defenders is already eye-catching, but skill alone will not make him a star.

His statistics are beginning to reflect his ability. Blake is averaging a point per game after leading the Hurricanes in production as they secured the franchise’s second Stanley Cup. Over his last 33 regular-season and postseason games combined, he has 34 points, including strong contributions in the Stanley Cup Final. This is no longer just a hot streak.

What makes his talent seem limitless goes beyond the points. Across 14 games this season, Blake has a 5-on-5 goals-for rate per 60 (GF/60) of 3.69. That is the fourth-highest total among Hurricanes forwards, and only one player ahead of him has appeared in every game: his linemate Logan Stankoven. Blake’s production is already excellent, and Carolina is receiving real value from his ice time.

Blake’s expected goals-for rate (xGF/60) at 5-on-5 is 4.65, according to Natural Stat Trick. He is underperforming his expected goals by nearly one. He and his line can be more clinical in front of the net, as his shooting percentage is only 7.1% this season. His career average is 12.3% over two full seasons, so he is trending in the right direction. As his goal-scoring picks up, he will open more opportunities for his playmaking to take over. Shooting percentage is not identical to underperforming his xGF/60, but the two are related. As his finishing improves, he will close the gap between expected and actual goals.

Blake’s Path to Stardom

The most impressive aspect is that the Hurricanes have been plagued by injuries, yet Blake and his line have not slowed down. Taylor Hall spent time on the shelf, but the second line did not miss a beat after Nikolaj Ehlers moved up to play with them. Blake has continued to produce as the roster’s second-leading scorer to start the season.

Looking beyond 5-on-5 play, Blake has earned a spot on the top power-play unit while Seth Jarvis works his way back to full speed after an injury. Blake has one goal and five assists on the man advantage. He is not merely filling in admirably; he has done an excellent job keeping the Hurricanes’ production drop-off from being noticeable without Jarvis. The greatest compliment one can pay Blake is that Carolina has not looked like it is missing anyone who has been sidelined, and part of that is how well he has played.

The Hurricanes are known for their aggressive defensive system, which requires players to excel in all three zones, and Blake has taken a major step forward defensively. His goals-against rate per 60 (GA/60) is 1.01. That figure is somewhat unsustainable and will not stay that low. Still, the idea that the Hurricanes concede one goal every 60 minutes Blake and his line are on the ice is a strong indicator of how good that line has been defensively.

His expected goals-against rate (xGA/60) is not as flashy, but it is still only 2.14. It is the eighth-best among all Hurricanes forwards this season, and it also shows how strong the Hurricanes have been defensively as a team. Comparison is often the thief of joy, and that is the case here, because it risks undermining how good Blake has been in his own zone.

However, he has been somewhat sheltered. His line typically sees the fewest defensive-zone draws of the four Hurricanes lines, and it is easier to look good defensively when you do not have to defend as much. That is not a knock on Blake; it is simply another area for a young player to grow.

No Ceiling in Sight

When evaluating a player, it is usually easy to see what they do well and what holds them back. For Blake, it is easy to see what he does well. His hands are among the slickest in the league. Many thought his skating might limit him, but according to NHL Edge, he is in the 54th percentile for maximum skating speed. He is quick enough. He has produced in the biggest moments, and he is showing he can produce in large quantities.

The only limiting factor right now is his goal-scoring. He has just three goals despite being in the 97th percentile for shot volume. Some of that is bad luck. Blake has seen a few of his best shots either robbed by the opposing goaltender or pinged off the post. Some of it will come with the way he is playing. However, if he can keep developing into a player who outperforms his expected goals totals and becomes more clinical when firing on goal, he will become very difficult to contain.

There is no strict limit, though that is not entirely true. While he is an above-average skater, he does not have the explosive speed of some elite skaters. That may hold him back from certain conversations. That said, could he be like Artemi Panarin and not have his lack of upper-echelon speed hold him back? That is certainly a possibility, and that is what makes Blake so exciting. He will develop into a very special player if he can keep raising his production.

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