The Japanese Yen has climbed over 0.31% against the US Dollar as market participants scale back expectations for aggressive interest rate hikes following a softer-than-expected US inflation report. The USD/JPY pair is currently trading at 161.93, after hitting a daily peak of 162.48.

USD/JPY Retreats as Soft Inflation Offsets Cautious Remarks from Warsh

According to the latest US inflation data, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 3.5% year-on-year in June, falling short of the projected 3.8% and lower than May’s 4.2% figure. This data has prompted a shift in market sentiment regarding Federal Reserve policy; traders are now pricing in just 18 basis points of tightening, down significantly from the 35 basis points anticipated yesterday, according to Prime Terminal data.

During his testimony before the US Congress, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh emphasized the central bank’s commitment to price stability while noting that the labor market remains well-balanced. Addressing the June CPI data, Warsh cautioned against overreacting to single data points, stating that the current figures do not necessarily signal that the inflation battle has been won.

Meanwhile, ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to exert upward pressure on energy costs. The US crude oil benchmark, WTI, has surged over 1.50% today, marking an nearly 11% increase over the last month. While June’s inflation print was cooler than expected, rising energy costs could potentially drive July’s figures higher.

The US economic calendar this week includes the release of the June Producer Price Index (PPI), which is forecasted to decrease from 6.5% to 6.2%, while core PPI is expected to rise from 4.9% to 5.2%. Investors will also closely monitor upcoming speeches from Fed officials, including Chair Warsh, Governor Cook, and New York Fed President John Williams.

USD/JPY Technical Outlook

USD/JPY daily chart

On the daily chart, USD/JPY is trading at 162.15, maintaining a bullish trend as the spot price remains above a cluster of moving averages near 160.19 and a horizontal support level at 160.00. The technical structure remains constructive, supported by upward-sloping trend lines from 139.89 and 152.10, alongside resistance at 159.23 which now serves as demand. The Relative Strength Index (14) sits near 57, indicating positive momentum that is not currently overextended.

On the downside, immediate support is established at the moving average cluster near 160.19 and the 160.00 horizontal level, which may attract buyers on pullbacks. A further decline could test the upward trend-line near 158.23, though broader bullish momentum would only be threatened by sustained weakness toward the 154.40 area. As long as these support levels hold, the pair remains biased toward further gains.

Source link

Exit mobile version