Joby Aviation’s Electric Air Taxi Ambitions Could Yield Outsized Returns for Patient Investors

Key Points

A stock that increases tenfold in value — a 900% gain — is a rare and coveted outcome for any investor. However, such returns seldom materialize overnight, and even the most successful multi-baggers typically require years or even decades to deliver their full potential to holders willing to exercise patience.

Could Joby Aviation (NYSE: JOBY), the emerging air taxi company, emerge as one of these extraordinary winners?

Image source: Joby Aviation.

The Long Road to a Tenfold Return

Joby Aviation is developing electric air taxis, technically known as electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft.

If you haven’t yet encountered or seen an eVTOL, it’s because this category of aircraft has not yet received approval for commercial operations in the United States. But should approval come, the implications could be significant — daily commutes could look entirely different from above, and urban skies may see fewer helicopters and more of these quiet, electric, drone-like craft ferrying passengers at speed.

The eVTOL market is projected to represent a substantial portion of the global economy, with Morgan Stanley forecasting a total addressable market of $1 trillion by 2050.

This context is critical to understanding Joby’s appeal: the company is, quite literally, the frontrunner in this nascent industry. Joby has logged over 50,000 flight miles, and its aircraft has reached the fifth and final stage of FAA type certification. The company generates revenue through its passenger helicopter business, Blade, and is also partnering with Toyota (NYSE: TM) to establish the foundation for large-scale manufacturing of air taxis.

In short, if the eVTOL industry develops into the billion-dollar market analysts anticipate, Joby stands as its most natural beneficiary.

But would that be enough to make Joby a tenfold winner?

As of September 10, Joby had a market capitalization of approximately $6.4 billion. A tenfold increase would elevate that to roughly $64 billion, assuming no change in share count. At a price-to-earnings multiple of 30 and net margins of 15%, that would imply approximately $14 billion in annual revenue. To put it another way: if each Joby eVTOL aircraft earned $2 million per year, the company would need a fleet of 7,500 aircraft to generate $15 billion in annual revenue.

These are ambitious figures that demand aggressive expansion. If Joby manufactured 1,000 eVTOL vehicles annually, it would accumulate 7,500 in 7.5 years — or 15 years at a production rate of 500 per year. Currently, Joby has built five aircraft, with 12 more in production.

So yes, Joby could plausibly grow into a $64 billion market cap — but reaching that milestone will require years of sustained expansion. A tenfold return, if it materializes at all, would likely take a decade or longer. That may be a very long flight for investors who need their money sooner — not a commitment every investor can afford to make. Given Joby’s speculative standing today, one should only invest with the time horizon necessary to see the thesis play out; otherwise, there are plenty of other compelling opportunities that demand less patience and fewer leaps of faith.

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