JPMorgan Says Midea Could Double by 2030 If Industrial Pivot Gains Traction

Hong Kong-listed home appliance maker Midea faces a pivotal strategic shift, according to J.P. Morgan analysts. The bank said the company could either evolve into a global industrial technology group similar to Siemens, potentially doubling its market value by 2030, or follow a slower path comparable to Panasonic, with more modest gains of around 25%.

Midea shares have already risen more than 7% this year, outperforming Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index, which has slipped more than 3%. The appliance maker ranks among the 20 largest stocks in the benchmark by market capitalization, ahead of chipmaker SMIC and consumer electronics company Xiaomi.

“The market is still valuing the old Midea — a strong appliance business — but we believe the new Midea is becoming a more compelling mix of consumer cash flow and business-to-business industrial technology,” the J.P. Morgan analysts said.

The bank initiated coverage of Midea’s Shenzhen-traded shares with an overweight rating and a price target of 105 yuan, or about $15.50, implying more than 20% upside from Friday’s close.

For Midea to become a larger industrial force, J.P. Morgan said it needs to achieve three goals at once: become a global leader in commercial heating, ventilation and air-conditioning systems; turn German robotics subsidiary Kuka into a major earnings contributor by expanding its share of China’s factory automation market to at least 25%, from just under 10%; and build a new business-focused division that generates at least 20 billion yuan in revenue by 2030.

Potential growth areas include data center liquid cooling, energy storage and medical imaging. Revenue from Midea’s commercial and industrial solutions business rose 17.5% in 2025, accounting for more than a quarter of total revenue, though smart home appliances remain the company’s largest segment. More than 40% of Midea’s revenue comes from outside China.

J.P. Morgan said the key question is whether Midea becomes a different type of company, one that investors value under a new framework. The analysts noted that rising competition in the appliance market makes it increasingly important for Midea to use its strengths in automation, sustainability and global expansion.

The company has received the World Economic Forum’s “lighthouse” designation in recent years for its work in factory automation and sustainability. Last week, Midea also launched a technology solutions business aimed at helping Chinese companies expand their factory networks overseas, and highlighted a virtual reality training system designed to accelerate onboarding for new workers.

“The old framework — subsidies, replacement cycles and margins — still matters, but it misses the broader transition,” J.P. Morgan said. The bank said China’s consumer business is becoming Midea’s funding base, overseas original brand manufacturing is emerging as a growth engine, and business-to-business industrial technology could drive a higher valuation multiple.

The shift could also affect global competitors. J.P. Morgan said many overseas industrial players are constrained by rising supply-chain inefficiencies, forcing them to raise prices faster than Chinese rivals to protect profitability.

J.P. Morgan also initiated coverage of Haier’s Hong Kong-listed shares and Zhejiang Supor’s Shenzhen-listed shares, giving both an overweight rating.

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