The activity first caught the eye of Beni, co‑founder of research firm Stealth Neolab, who noted that Kalshi’s ether perpetual contract logged roughly $539 million in 24‑hour trading volume while open interest stood at only $3.1 million. He later observed that trades of exactly $5,500 accounted for 48% to 58% of the notional volume on four separate days in September, citing Kalshi’s public API as the source of these numbers.
Diana explained that these patterns stem from Kalshi’s liquidity‑incentive program, which pays users for supplying liquidity to the market.
“We transmit our data to the CFTC on a daily basis, and it’s not unusual for them to review it regularly,” Diana remarked in an interview.
The CFTC did not respond to a request for comment submitted on Tuesday.
The heightened scrutiny arrives as prediction‑market platforms expand rapidly, prompting greater focus on how they report trading volume and monitor interactions among participants. Liquidity‑incentive schemes generally reward traders for posting orders, thereby facilitating a market where other users can buy and sell.
Kalshi maintains that its incentive program accounts for the trading patterns that have drawn attention, including clusters of similarly sized trades.
When questioned about safeguards against wash trading and self‑trading, Diana said Kalshi employs “numerous tools” and maintains a dedicated surveillance team. Wash trading refers to transactions intended to simulate market activity without any real change in economic exposure.
