Key Lessons From Massachusetts’ Primary Elections

Massachusetts has proven to be fertile ground for veteran Democratic incumbents.

Three longtime Democratic officeholders who first entered politics well before the smartphone era secured their party’s nomination in Tuesday’s primary contests. Senator Ed Markey, 80, along with Representatives Richard Neal, 77, and Stephen F. Lynch, 71, are all poised to continue serving in their respective roles.

Each incumbent defeated challengers advocating for generational change. Mr. Markey decisively outperformed Representative Seth Moulton, 47, who pursued a more moderate platform, while Mr. Neal and Mr. Lynch both overcame progressive opponents.

Mr. Markey has spent five decades in public office. Mr. Neal has represented western Massachusetts since 1989. Mr. Lynch first won his South Boston seat in 2001. Massachusetts Democrats appear reluctant to oust their established incumbents.

Here are six key takeaways from the Massachusetts primary results:

Voters overlooked Markey’s age.

Despite the Democratic Party’s difficulties following former President Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s challenging 2024 campaign, voters did not reject an octogenarian senator seeking another six-year term.

Had Mr. Markey, 80, faced a younger opponent with stronger political connections than Mr. Moulton, he might have struggled in Tuesday’s Democratic primary. However, Mr. Moulton has built his career challenging party orthodoxy and its leadership.

That track record gave Mr. Markey the political room to position himself as the true progressive in the race, promoting forward-looking ideas—despite his 50 years in Congress.

In the final days before the Massachusetts primary, several Democrats noted that while Mr. Moulton carried the party’s necessary generational change message, he was not the ideal candidate to deliver it.

Mr. Markey consistently stated during the campaign that he would step down if his age prevented him from adequately serving. He is now expected to prevail in November, which would keep him in the Senate until age 86.

Moulton’s trans remarks remained a liability.

In a general election battleground state, Mr. Moulton’s cautious stance on trans athletes’ participation in youth sports might have resonated more with voters.

However, from the moment Mr. Moulton entered the race last October, Mr. Markey weaponized his comments questioning transgender girls’ participation in women’s sports. This strategy not only mobilized LGBTQ voters behind Mr. Markey but also reinforced his image as the progressive candidate.

This proved to be the same formula that powered Mr. Markey’s 2020 primary victory over another younger, more moderate Democrat, Joe Kennedy III.

Mr. Moulton eventually issued a qualified apology for his remarks, which came the day after President Trump secured a second term in 2024. However, by then the state’s progressive voters had heard for months from Mr. Markey and his allies about how Mr. Moulton was willing to abandon trans people during difficult times.

Dan Koh’s victory owes much to Biden and Harris.

Many Democrats were skeptical when Dan Koh featured endorsement videos from Mr. Biden and former Vice President Kamala Harris in his campaign.

Mr. Koh, a former White House aide under Mr. Biden, was competing against Tram Nguyen, a progressive state legislator, for Mr. Moulton’s House seat north of Boston.

Linking one’s political identity to a presidential administration many Democrats hoped to move beyond was an unconventional approach. No other Democrat in a competitive primary this year featured video testimonials from both Mr. Biden and Ms. Harris. (He also received significant support from a pro-A.I. super PAC.)

The strategy proved effective. Mr. Koh secured a relatively comfortable victory over Ms. Nguyen and four other candidates. In a heavily Democratic district, he is virtually certain to enter Congress in January as a product of the Biden administration.

Stephen Lynch and Richard Neal survive challenges.

Mr. Markey was not the only veteran candidate to prevail on Tuesday. Mr. Neal and Mr. Lynch both repelled younger challengers for their House seats.

Unlike Mr. Markey, both Mr. Neal and Mr. Lynch confronted progressive newcomers. While both won by narrower margins than in previous elections, they are expected to return to Congress for another two years.

Massachusetts has not elected a Republican to any congressional seat since 1994. Assuming this pattern continues—which is widely anticipated—five of the nine Massachusetts House delegation members next year will be 63 or older. Both senators will be 77 or older. Repeated efforts by young challengers to unseat the state’s veteran incumbents have consistently failed.

Pollsters redeemed in Massachusetts.

The polling industry has faced considerable criticism recently after Democratic primary results in Michigan and Wisconsin deviated significantly from final survey predictions, followed by an unexpected outcome in the Florida Senate race.

In Massachusetts, the pollsters delivered accurate forecasts.

Emerson College and the University of New Hampshire released polls in the final week before the primary showing Mr. Markey receiving more than 60 percent of the vote—overwhelming numbers.

These projections proved remarkably accurate.

Getting the numbers right represents a meaningful triumph for pollsters as they approach the final general election stretch in competitive battleground states.

Ambitious Democrats already eyeing future races.

The next two Massachusetts Senate contests could attract a crowded field of ambitious Democrats from competing party factions.

The state’s Senate races in 2030, when Senator Elizabeth Warren, now 77, would face re-election, and 2032, when Mr. Markey’s current term would conclude, are likely to become open-seat contests.

Mr. Markey stated in July that the term he was seeking would be his last. Ms. Warren would be 81 in 2030.

Massachusetts has no shortage of Democrats who have been eyeing upcoming Senate opportunities. Representatives Ayanna Pressley and Jake Auchincloss have made little effort to conceal their interest in these seats. Mayor Michelle Wu of Boston represents a popular progressive option. Marty Walsh, the former Boston mayor who served as Mr. Biden’s labor secretary, could also potentially run.

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