On Wednesday, forecasts indicated that South Korea’s ruling party was poised for a decisive victory in the local elections, which are seen as a referendum on President Lee Jae‑myung’s leadership and a critical test for the struggling conservative opposition.
Exit polls released by the nation’s three leading broadcasters showed Lee’s Democratic Party leading in 11 of the 16 mayoral and gubernatorial contests, while the conservative People Power Party was projected to win only one, with the outcomes of the remaining four races still uncertain.
Four years earlier, the People Power Party had captured the local elections in a landslide. Its fortunes have since eroded after its leader, former President Yoon Suk Yeol, authorized a widely condemned imposition of martial law in late 2024, leading to his removal from office and a life sentence for insurrection.
Lee assumed the presidency a year ago and has enjoyed rising popularity, buoyed by pragmatic diplomatic initiatives and an unprecedented surge in the domestic stock market.
Key points about the election follow.
Who’s on the ballot?
The elections held on Wednesday represent the first nationwide polls conducted under Lee’s leadership. They will determine mayors for eight major cities and governors for eight provinces, as well as council members and school‑district superintendents. Voters will also select officials for smaller municipalities, counties, and municipal districts within large cities. Additionally, parliamentary by‑elections will fill 14 vacant seats in the National Assembly.
A referendum on the president
Lee’s conservative critics have frequently portrayed him as a radical who might undermine South Korea’s alliance with the United States by appeasing North Korea and China, while distancing the nation from Japan. Yet his tenure has surprised many skeptics: he has improved relations with both Beijing and Tokyo and negotiated a trade and security agreement with the Trump administration.
He has also overseen a booming stock market, with the Kospi index more than tripling since his inauguration, driven largely by AI‑driven demand for South Korean semiconductors. His Democratic Party has passed widely popular legislation aimed at curbing prosecutorial power and establishing a new agency akin to the FBI. Lee has also earned praise for livestreaming Cabinet meetings, during which he directly questions and challenges his own ministers on live television.
His approval ratings hover around 65 percent, among the highest recorded for any modern South Korean president.
Those high ratings may have fostered overconfidence within his party, which introduced a bill that critics argued was intended to dismiss corruption allegations and criminal charges against Lee — accusations he describes as politically motivated and which have been suspended since he assumed office. The proposal sparked significant backlash, especially among conservatives.
An opposition in turmoil
For nearly five decades, conservatives — under various guises — dominated South Korean politics. Since the late 1990s, however, the balance has shifted: the Democratic Party has produced four presidents while the conservatives have produced three; two of those three presidents were impeached and imprisoned, and the third, though completing his term, later faced incarceration.
Since Yoon’s martial‑law declaration, the People Power Party’s approval ratings have plummeted to barely half of those of the Democratic Party.
The conservative party’s once‑formidable base has dwindled to a hard‑line core, with its political stronghold now largely confined to the southeastern Daegu‑Gyeongbuk region. It remains embroiled in an internal feud between those who supported Yoon’s declaration and those who backed his impeachment and call for reform.
“Those in their 20s and 30s feel their lives have not yet changed — jobs remain scarce and housing out of reach,” noted Heo of Gallup Korea. “A key question is voter turnout; surveys suggest their intention to vote appears somewhat lower than in previous local elections.”
