Leading Change – 2026 Travers Stakes Contender Profile: Odds, Post Position, Connections & Analysis

Leading Change: Post 2; Morning Line: 12-1

Trainer: Brad Cox; Jockey: Manny Franco

Tuesday, Aug. 24, 2026

Leading Change: The Basics at a Glance

Leading Change – 2026 Travers Stakes Profile

• Horse: Leading Change
• Pedigree: Gun Runner-Starship Warpspeed, by Congrats
• Owner: Wathnan Racing
• Trainer: Brad Cox
• Jockey: Manny Franco
• Post position: 2
• Morning Line odds: 12-1
• Running style: Frontrunner/pace presser
• Top Equibase Speed Figure: 101
• Career record: 2-2-0-0
• Career earnings: $248,696
• Race: $1.25 million Travers Stakes (G1), Saratoga (157th running)
• Distance: 1¼ miles (dirt)
• Last race: 1st Indiana Derby (G3), July 11, Horseshoe Indianapolis

Too Much, Too Soon for Leading Change

This son of standout sire Gun Runner did what few horses can do: win a graded stakes in his second lifetime start. He is 2-for-2 and has already earned nearly a quarter of a million dollars. However, he could not have been handed a more demanding assignment on Saturday — stretching out from 1 1/16 miles to 1¼ miles while facing the best horses in the 3-year-old division.

Trainer Brad Cox is hopeful the inexperienced colt can replicate the performance he delivered last month at Horseshoe Indianapolis. This field is exponentially tougher, led by Grade 1 winners Golden Tempo, Napoleon Solo, Renegade, and Baby Vino.

“Big-time pedigree and we think he’s a big-time horse,” said Cox, who acknowledges he is taking a shot. “We’re excited about what he’s showed us.”

Leading Change has looked sharp in his last three workouts, all going 5 furlongs at Cox’s Churchill Downs base. He was timed in 59 4/5 seconds, 1:01 1/5, and 1:00 4/5.

“I’m very happy with how he’s training,” Cox said. “He’s happy and fresh and enjoying the weather up here in Saratoga.”

All that is encouraging, but his speed figures do not measure up against his standout opponents, and he will be traveling three-sixteenths of a mile farther than he has ever run before.

Manny Franco, who is enjoying a terrific meet at Saratoga, takes the mount in place of regular rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who is recovering from a lingering foot injury.

Leading Change Race Scenario

Leading Change will likely attempt to outsprint Preakness Stakes (G1) winner Napoleon Solo for the early lead, with Sea Strike not far behind. If Franco can secure the front and dictate the tempo, he will try to give Leading Change a breather before Golden Tempo and Renegade launch their late runs. Once the heavy hitters come calling, expect Leading Change to tire and back up. He profiles as a colt who will win more stakes down the road, but this is unlikely to be the day.

Leading Change Betting Advice

The 12-1 morning line does not fully capture the difficulty of this spot for Leading Change. Insist on at least 15-1, and even then, do not expect to cash. Toss.

— By Ed McNamara

Ed McNamara is an award-winning racing writer who has covered the sport since 1981 for The Bergen (N.J.) Record, Newsday, ESPN, Thorocap, and USRacing. He is the author of Cajun Racing: From the Bush Tracks to the Triple Crown and Racing Around the World, and a contributor to The Most Glorious Crown and The Racetracks of America. He has also written for racing publications in France and Italy.

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