Libya’s Rival Institutions Sign UN-Mediated Roadmap for Elections Within Two Years

CAIRO: Libya has embarked on a potentially pivotal chapter in its prolonged political transition, following the signing of a landmark agreement by representatives from the nation’s rival institutions. The deal outlines a comprehensive roadmap for holding presidential and parliamentary elections within a two-year timeframe.

Signed in Tripoli under the mediation of the UN Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL), the agreement aims to resolve long-standing disputes over electoral legislation, reform the national elections commission, and establish the conditions necessary to end over a decade of parallel administrations and fractured governance.

The signing ceremony was attended by Hanna Tetteh, the UN Secretary-General’s Special Representative for Libya and the head of UNSMIL.

The initiative follows months of intensive negotiations conducted under the “4+4” dialogue format, which brought together two representatives from each of Libya’s four primary power centers: the Government of National Unity, the High Council of State, the House of Representatives, and the Libyan National Army.

Under the terms of the agreement, both legislative and presidential elections must be conducted within a maximum window of 24 months, operating under a single, unified executive authority and cohesive national institutions.

Should the 24-month deadline prove unfeasible, the signatory parties commit to collaborating with UNSMIL to develop an alternative mechanism to ensure the electoral goals are still achieved.

The deal is framed as a deliberate effort to break the recurring cycle of temporary political arrangements that have defined Libya’s landscape since the 2011 fall of Muammar Qaddafi.

Past attempts to forge a durable political settlement have repeatedly stalled over disagreements regarding electoral laws, institutional legitimacy, control over state bodies, and the distribution of power.

Libyan Prime Minister Abdul Hamid Dbeibeh welcomed the agreement, characterizing it as a crucial step toward concluding the country’s extended transitional phase.

“From the outset, we have advocated for an end to the transitional phases and a direct transition to elections,” Dbeibeh stated in an official release.

He emphasized that the ultimate decision regarding the country’s future must rest with the Libyan people themselves.

“The ultimate decision must belong to the Libyan people, expressed through elections that end the state of division and restore true legitimacy to all institutions based on the will of the citizens,” Dbeibeh added.

He voiced hope that the agreement would translate into a practical milestone toward national elections, guiding Libya onto a more stable and secure path.

Aguila Saleh, Speaker of the House of Representatives, also welcomed the efforts to reach a comprehensive political settlement. He stated that the House supports initiatives designed to end political divisions and facilitate simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections.

He noted that the House of Representatives would formally review the agreement upon presentation and take all necessary measures to safeguard the public interest and maintain state stability.

Saleh further expressed readiness to participate in initiatives aimed at unifying Libya’s institutions and fostering the political conditions required for elections. He asserted that such a process could finally bring an end to the series of transitional arrangements and allow Libyans to choose their representatives through free and fair elections.

However, the primary challenge lies not merely in reaching an agreement, but in execution. Over the past 15 years, Libya has witnessed numerous political roadmaps announced and subsequently abandoned, with rival institutions frequently failing to honor their negotiated commitments.

This historical track record means that implementation remains the ultimate test of the latest initiative.

Rakha Ahmed Hassan, a former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister and ambassador to Kazakhstan, commented to Arab News that while the agreement represents “a step in the right direction,” he warned that previous UN-led initiatives have repeatedly faltered. He pointed to earlier attempts by UN envoys, including Martin Kobler and Ghassan Salame, to broker political settlements among Libya’s competing factions.

“The critical issue is implementation,” Hassan emphasized, warning that the success of the roadmap depends entirely on all Libyan parties adhering to their commitments and avoiding delays that could once again derail the electoral process.

Salah Halima, another former Egyptian Assistant Foreign Minister and former ambassador to Sudan, noted that the agreement could help unify Libya’s deeply divided institutions following years of severe instability.

Halima stated that the UN likely consulted neighboring countries and other nations with a direct stake in Libya’s future prior to the signing. He added that the electoral roadmap offers a potential pathway toward restoring unified state institutions after more than 15 years of fragmentation.

Mohammed El-Shazly, a member of the Egyptian Council for Foreign Affairs and former ambassador, asserted that political will is the ultimate determinant of whether the latest initiative will succeed. He noted that years of conflict and political rivalry have inflicted immense damage on Libya, despite its vast natural resources, while disputes between institutions have repeatedly obstructed previous peace efforts.

“The issue is not merely an agreement on paper,” El-Shazly told Arab News. “What is required is a genuine desire on the part of the institutions to work seriously to implement it.”

Tetteh described the agreement as a vital step toward overcoming the political and institutional deadlock that has long obstructed Libya’s electoral process.

She emphasized that the responsibility now lies with the Libyan parties to translate the agreement into concrete actions, including adopting it at the national level, implementing the agreed-upon electoral framework, and establishing the institutional and political conditions necessary for credible elections.

She added that the UN will continue to facilitate and support the process, emphasizing that Libya’s political future ultimately belongs to the Libyan people.

The agreement is the culmination of months of negotiations. The initial meeting of the smaller dialogue format took place in Rome on April 29, followed by seven intensive meetings in Tunis between May and August.

These discussions culminated in the signing of the Tripoli agreement and the formal commitment to hold elections within a 24-month window.

This renewed push for a settlement occurs amidst heightened regional and international attention on Libya. Last month, Arab League Secretary-General Nabil Fahmy met with Massad Boulos, senior adviser to US President Donald Trump on Arab and African affairs, to discuss ongoing developments in the country.

Fahmy reaffirmed the Arab League’s support for a Libyan-led political process aimed at unifying state institutions and holding presidential and parliamentary elections as soon as possible.

For Libya, the stakes remain incredibly high. The country continues to be divided between competing political and security institutions, despite persistent international efforts to establish a unified government and organize national elections.

The latest agreement presents a significant opportunity to break the existing stalemate. However, diplomats and analysts note that its true significance will be determined not by the signing ceremony in Tripoli, but by whether Libya’s political factions are genuinely prepared to implement their commitments.

After years of failed roadmaps and postponed elections, the central question remains whether the country’s competing institutions can finally transition from negotiation to execution, allowing the Libyan people to decide who governs them.

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