LONDON (AP) — Keir Starmer is not on the ballot, but the U.K. prime minister’s political future is facing a critical test in Thursday’s special election.
Voters in Makerfield, a constituency in northwest England, are choosing a new lawmaker. The front-runner is Andy Burnham of the governing Labour Party, the current mayor of Greater Manchester and the bookmakers’ favorite to become the next prime minister.
If Burnham defeats the candidate from the anti-immigration Reform UK party and returns the seat to Labour, he is widely expected to challenge Starmer for control of the party — and, under Britain’s parliamentary system, the country.
Burnham has promised that “if people put their trust in me, I will change politics,” a sweeping pledge from a politician who, if elected, would enter the House of Commons as one of 650 lawmakers.
The heavy presence of journalists from across the world in Makerfield during the campaign underscores that this is no ordinary by-election. Results are expected early Friday.
About 75,000 people are eligible to vote in Makerfield, a constituency of several towns and villages on the edge of Greater Manchester, roughly 200 miles (320 kilometers) northwest of London. Their votes could help determine Starmer’s fate.
Starmer’s popularity has fallen sharply since he led the center-left Labour Party to a landslide victory in July 2024. His government has struggled to deliver promised economic growth, repair strained public services and ease the cost-of-living crisis, while also facing repeated political missteps, including the appointment of Peter Mandelson, a scandal-tarnished friend of Jeffrey Epstein, as ambassador to the United States.
A poor showing in May’s local elections prompted dozens of Labour lawmakers to call for Starmer’s resignation. He has refused to step aside, but senior colleagues are pressing for a change. Wes Streeting resigned as health secretary in May, saying that “where we need vision, we have a vacuum.”
Then Josh Simons, Labour’s lawmaker for Makerfield, stepped down to trigger the special election and give Burnham a path back to Parliament.
Britain’s parliamentary system allows governing parties to replace their leader between national elections, with the new leader becoming prime minister without a general election. Under Labour Party rules, a lawmaker can challenge the leader with support from one-fifth of Labour’s House of Commons members — currently 81 lawmakers.
Streeting said Tuesday that he hopes Starmer will agree to step down, but added that if he does not, “there will need to be a contest, and I would be prepared to do that.”
Streeting is viewed as a polished communicator with support among parliamentary colleagues, but Burnham is considered the more likely successor.
The 56-year-old politician, nicknamed the “King of the North,” has led Manchester since 2017, overseeing rapid regeneration in the city where the Industrial Revolution took root. Burnham is now promising to expand his signature approach, which he calls “Manchesterism,” across the country.
“It’s not right, the way the country has been run,” Burnham said on the campaign trail last week, arguing that “London-centric politics” has failed other parts of the U.K.
Starmer, meanwhile, has sought to project steadiness. Speaking during a G7 summit in France this week, he insisted he had no intention of leaving office.
“I will fight if there’s a challenge,” he said. “We won a significant general election result in 2024, with a mandate to bring about change. I’m not going to walk away from that.”
Starmer suggested he could offer Burnham a Cabinet role if he wins the seat, telling Sky News on Wednesday that “I want him to have a big role in government.” Burnham’s allies have indicated he is not interested.
Rob Ford, a professor of political science at the University of Manchester, said that if Burnham wins convincingly, “the pressure on Starmer will be very hard to resist.”
“Starmer can say all that he likes that he wants to carry on,” Ford said. “But if the entire Cabinet turns around and says, ‘We’re not going to serve under you and we think you should go,’ then either he’ll go with dignity or go without dignity, but he’ll end up having to go quite quickly.”
Burnham’s victory is not guaranteed. Makerfield has elected Labour lawmakers for more than a century, but Reform UK has gained momentum in post-industrial northern England, winning big in local elections last month.
Reform candidate Rob Kenyon, a local plumber, is hoping to draw on voter concerns about immigration, even though Makerfield has a relatively low immigrant population. Reform also faces pressure from Restore, a more hard-line anti-immigration and ethnonationalist party to its right.
A Burnham win would be damaging for Starmer. But Ford said a Reform victory in Makerfield would bring “Gotterdammerung, apocalypse, disaster, chaos” for Labour.
“Andy Burnham is miles more popular than every other leadership candidate available. Miles better known, miles better liked,” he said.
“If Reform take him out, then simultaneously you have a situation where the Reform threat looks much graver, and the best person available to combat the Reform threat has failed.”