Residents of Ashton-in-Makerfield, a former coal mining town in northern England, could play a pivotal role in triggering a political upheaval by challenging Prime Minister Keir Starmer in a June 18 by-election. The outcome may determine whether Starmer’s Labour Party leadership is jeopardized, given widespread dissatisfaction among local voters.
Campaign efforts have intensified around the town, with Andy Burnham, Greater Manchester’s mayor, positioning himself as a contender for both the seat and the Labour leadership. His potential victory could ignite an intraparty challenge against Starmer, who faces mounting pressure amid economic stagnation and public discontent with inflation, youth unemployment, and healthcare challenges.
Local sentiment reflects frustration with Starmer’s leadership. Paul Kirkwood, a lifelong Labour supporter, stated, “The only reason [Burnham] is running is to challenge Starmer. We need a change of direction, and we won’t get it with him.” The constituency’s struggles mirror broader national concerns, with voters viewing a leadership shift as essential to addressing systemic issues.
The election also tests Reform UK, led by Nigel Farage, which has surged in municipal polls. Farage has pledged significant resources to Robert Kenyon, the party’s candidate, who aims to capitalize on anti-Starmer sentiment. Kenyon, a self-employed plumber and council member, won 24 of Makerfield’s 25 local council seats recently, highlighting Reform’s growing influence.
Some Labour voters, like Mike Jolley, an engineer, plan to defect to Reform over critiques of Starmer’s policies on immigration and welfare. “He doesn’t think about working people,” Jolley said, opting for Reform’s promise of “common sense” solutions despite acknowledging the party’s imperfections.
Recent data shows net migration in the UK has dropped to its lowest since 2012, though public perception remains skewed by ongoing concerns. Campaign ads by Burnham emphasize grassroots outreach, including social media videos of doorstep interactions, while Kenyon’s messaging centers on “normal people with common sense.” Kenyon’s past controversial remarks about gender were amplified in a BBC debate, though he dismisses accusations as contextualized errors.
Political analysts note Labour’s dominance in Makerfield may fragment as conservative voters split between Reform and Restore Britain, a faction led by former Reform member Rupert Lowe. Alex Meakin, a politics professor, warned that Burnham’s ability to unify progressive support will hinge on navigating these divisions.
Burnham has acknowledged his ambition to oust Starmer if elected, stating, “If I get your support, I would seek to represent you at the highest possible level.” Yet persuading voters—split between labour solidarity and Reform’s populist appeal—remains central to his strategy.
In Ashton’s coffee shops and pubs, voters debate their choices broadly. David Babbington supports Burnham to “rebuild Labour,” while David Edwards backs Kenyon to curb immigration. Both underscore the constituency’s role as a bellwether for UK politics, where a single constituency’s decision could reverberate across Downing Street.