ASEAN Energy Leaders Prioritize Resilience Amid Escalating Middle East Conflict
Manila hosts a gathering of Southeast Asian energy ministers as a protracted Middle East war exposes the region’s vulnerability to imported energy sources.
With the ongoing U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran persisting, ASEAN faces heightened pressure to adopt its outlined energy security strategies and mitigate the risk of price volatility stemming from disruptions to transportation infrastructure and maritime routes across the Middle East.
ASEAN relies on over half of its crude imports from the Middle East as benchmark prices sit near $100 per barrel. The conflict further amplifies security concerns, particularly after Chinese refineries announced a suspension of product exports for October.
Amid these developments, energy ministers convening in Manila are slated to evaluate existing fuel‑security frameworks established following earlier emergency discussions, with particular focus on operationalizing coordinated emergency responses under the ASEAN Framework Agreement on Petroleum Security (APSA).
Prospective items on the agenda include long‑term projects such as the ASEAN Power Grid and expanded deployments of renewable energy technologies.
LOWER EARNINGS
Climbing fuel prices are inflating household expenses and eroding incomes for transport workers.
The ASEAN Centre for Energy, according to a policy brief, warns that a major supply shock in the Middle East could threaten roughly 28 % of the bloc’s total oil consumption, highlighting the imperative for tougher regional petroleum‑security measures.
However, persistent deficits in storage capacity and inventories impede APSA implementation, warns Alloysius Joho Purwanto, senior energy economist at the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia, during a webinar hosted by the Centre for Strategic and International Studies.
Energy Secretary Sharon Garin indicates that the Philippines, still coping with a nationwide energy emergency, is considering bilateral fuel‑stockpiling agreements and may serve as a venue for upcoming strategic storage facilities.
Analysts stress that these contingency steps will not meaningfully alleviate the current turmoil.
“This is more about preparing for the next crisis. A reserve is a buffer. It is not a strategy,” Christopher Len, a senior fellow at the ISEAS‑Yusuf Ishak Institute, said in the same webinar, referring to regional stockpiling initiatives.
The group is also set to explore pathways to diminish reliance on imported fuels, emphasizing renewable energy, electric mobility, and improved efficiency as core components.
The International Energy Agency estimates Southeast Asia’s energy import bill could rise from more than $80 billion in 2024 to about $245 billion by 2035 without structural change.
The IEA said wider electrification, including electric vehicles and biofuels, would help curb oil demand and reduce exposure to volatile fuel imports, while cross‑border links under the ASEAN Power Grid that would integrate the region’s electrical network will require about $27 billion in investment by 2040.
“We should actually use this shock as a lesson to reduce exposure, not only to cushion it,” Len said.
