‘As tariff talks advance among the members of the United States‑Mexico‑Canada Agreement, we see a high likelihood that the United States will lower import duties on Mexican steel, which would lift domestic steel prices in Mexico and enhance Ternium’s profitability,’ said analyst Carlos De Alba in a Thursday client note.
He noted that the prospect of tariff reductions comes after Ternium recently completed its investment cycle, a development that could further unlock shareholder value. Morgan Stanley also expects the United States’ trade‑policy shift to prompt Mexico to raise its own steel import tariffs to about 50%, up from the current 25%‑35% range. This would tighten the Mexican steel market, bring local prices nearer to U.S. levels, and materially improve Ternium’s earnings, De Alba added.
The brokerage’s view aligns with broader Wall Street sentiment. Of the 16 analysts covering Ternium, seven rate the stock a buy or strong buy, while six maintain a hold, according to LSEG data. Year‑to‑date, the shares have gained approximately 42%, and they rose more than 1% after the upgrade.