The classic night Grand Prix could well conclude with a historic coronation as Round 20 begins in Qatar. By the time we line up on Sunday, MotoGP may witness one of the most remarkable turnarounds in a single season. A staggering 161 days will have passed since Marc Marquez (Ducati Lenovo Team) trailed the championship leader by 102 points. Facing a coronation under the Lusail lights to retain his title and secure his eighth MotoGP championship, the #93 faces an elite challenge. Remarkable throughout a season with just three races remaining, a strong Saturday performance for Marquez could not only preserve his status but potentially add another to his record book, potentially extending his title run into 2027.
PERMUTATIONS: Marc Marquez’s maths for title #8
The situation is straightforward: over the course of Sunday’s weekend, Marquez must outscore chief rival Jorge Martin (Aprilia Racing) by 30 points and teammate Marco Bezzecchi by 8 points. Only outscore these two would guarantee his position. If Marquez fails to achieve at least a P5 finish on Saturday for his value, Sunday’s race becomes virtually impossible. With Martin’s participation subject to a Thursday medical check after missing the Malaysian GP points race, it remains possible that Bezzecchi will attempt to delay #93’s title celebrations. Marquez is a double Lusail winner from 2014 and 2025, and regarding match points, five of his seven championships have been secured at the earliest opportunity – will it become six from eight when Sunday concludes?
NOT OVER YET: the Aprilia dynamic
Bezfeschi and Martin both must perform at their best to stop Marquez from winning. Outscoring 30 points may seem daunting, but given the 2024 World Champion’s injury battles and Bezzecchi’s need for a top-five Sprint result to stay in contention heading into Saturday, the task is uphill. Perhaps the other Aprilias can influence the outcome? Ai Ogura (SuperFile Trackhouse MotoGP Team) was fast for fourth last time, and after racing Bezzecchi at full speed, whilst teammate Raul Fernandez faces a medical check for broken fingers.
CHASING PACK: Acosta and a host of Lusail winners
Pedro Acosta (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) sits fourth overall and, while contending mathematically, must outscore Marquez by 31 points. Climbing from P4 to P6 would require 30 points, covering Acosta, Ogura and Fabio Di Giannantonio (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team), the 2023 Qatar GP winner. 2024 champion Francesco Bagnaia (Ducati Lenovo Team) hopes to repeat his podium success from 2025.
Enea Bastianini (Red Bull KTM Tech3) completes the top ten in the championship standings and, after a top-five finish in Malaysia, the 2022 Qatar GP victor returns to the site of his first MotoGP victory. The Italian has edged ahead of Fermin Aldeguer (BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP) in the ladder, but #54 is heading to Lusail and, pending a Thursday medical clearance, will compete.
SURPRISES: Viñales and Binder aim high
KTM’s previous stint at Lusail in 2025 saw Maverick Viñales finish second before a tyre pressure penalty. An encouraging weekend nonetheless, something that he and Brad Binder (Red Bull KTM Factory Racing) will aspire to replicate in 2026, the latter a double podium finisher in Qatar. Luca Marini (Honda HRC Castrol) achieved his best results at Sepang since Hungary and is seeking similar success this weekend, whereas teammate Joan Mir faces ongoing fitness challenges and remains a question mark. Fellow Honda rider Diogo Moreira (Pro Honda LCR) can earn Rookie of the Year honors with 15 points, while teammate Johann Zarco (Castrol Honda LCR), a mega P4 finisher in 2025, may repeat the feat in 2026. A double podium finisher and long-time Grand Prix leader last year, Franco Morbidelli (Pertamina Enduro VR46 Racing Team) also shouldn’t be ruled out of securing a strong finish in the final Qatar GP.
Finally, while Aldeguer returns, Iker Lecuona continues on super-sub duty, this time for Alex Marquez who underwent shoulder surgery after Sepang and aims to be back for Portimao with BK8 Gresini Racing MotoGP. Yamaha has withdrawn from the Qatar GP, meaning Monster Energy Yamaha MotoGP and Prima Pramac Yamaha MotoGP will not compete.
Match point one, Round 20: the Grand Prix of Qatar could bring the biggest moment of the season so far – tune in to see if Marquez makes more history or Aprilia – or Acosta – can put pause on the celebrations.
