NASCAR has reverted to its traditional playoff format for 2026, bringing back the Chase structure. Instead of a win-and-in system, the top 16 drivers in regular-season standings will advance to a 10-race postseason round with no eliminations. Points reset at the start of the playoffs, with the regular-season champion beginning at 2,100 points and the 16th-place driver at 2,000, decreasing by five-point increments. Eight races remain in the regular season: Chicagoland, Atlanta, North Wilkesboro, Indianapolis, Iowa, Richmond, New Hampshire and Daytona.
Clinched
No driver has secured a playoff berth yet.
In Good Shape
Eight drivers sit more than 120 points above the cutoff line, making them likely locks for the Chase. Even a DNF or two wouldn’t derail their postseason hopes.
— Denny Hamlin (+330 on the cutoff): The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is positioned to secure his spot in the coming weeks.
— Tyler Reddick (+329): The 23XI Racing driver should join Hamlin in clinching soon.
— Ryan Blaney (+226): The Team Penske standout has one win but leads the series with 13 top-10 finishes.
— Ty Gibbs (+200): The JGR driver claimed his first Cup victory this season and has seven top-five finishes. Four DNFs are his only hindrance in the standings.
— Kyle Larson (+182): The defending series champion from Hendrick Motorsports leads all drivers with 152 stage points.
Larson lacks a wins on the season but paces the field in stage points.
— Chase Elliott (+165): The Hendrick driver is having his best start to a season with two victories already.
— Chris Buescher (+129): The RFK Racing driver has no race or stage win but has maintained consistent finishes throughout the year.
— Carson Hocevar (+120): The Spire driver owns this season’s sole win, along with four top-fives and seven top-10s, without a single DNF.
On The Bubble
A strong or poor run in the final eight races could reshuffle the playoff field, particularly ifbubble drivers record wins. With up to 76 points available per event, drivers within 100 points of the cutoff are right on the edge.
— Daniel Suárez (+95): The Spire Motorsports driver has surprisingly climbed into bubble territory after Sonoma, going from 116 points up to just 95 ahead of the cutoff.
— Christopher Bell (+83): Despite dealing with a broken left wrist, Bell rebounded nicely after Sonoma, moving from 60 points above the cutoff to 83 points ahead.
— Chase Briscoe (+79): The JGR driver has struggled early in the year without a race or stage victory. His performances under pressure will be crucial moving forward.
— William Byron (+57): The Hendrick driver has experienced uncharacteristic inconsistency and still searches for his first win of the season.
— Bubba Wallace (+55): The 23XI driver posted a pair of runner-up finishes in the last four events, but still sits perilously close to the cutoff line after a few poor showings.
— Shane van Gisbergen (+36): The Trackhouse driver’s Sonoma victory lifted him from below the cutoff to 36 points ahead. The remaining challenge will be accumulating points over the next eight races.
van Gisbergen enters the final stretch on a high note following his Sonoma triumph.
— Ryan Preece (+13): The RFK driver likely has motivation after a 25-point penalty earlier this year for intentionally wrecking Ty Gibbs.
— Austin Cindric (+12): The Team Penske driver likely expected a more comfortable position, especially with teammate Joey Logano currently below the cutoff.
— Erik Jones (-12): The Legacy Motorsports driver has improved recently but a rough Sonoma weekend dropped him back below the cutline.
— Brad Keselowski (-25): The 2012 champion was up 55 points on the cutoff line five races ago but now faces the challenge of mounting a comeback.
— AJ Allmendinger (-26): Allmendinger’s five-point loss to the cutoff at Sonoma indicates Shane van Gisbergen’s Sonoma win shifted the playoff line.
— Joey Logano (-31): The three-time Cup champion remains a dangerous wildcard despite his current position.
— Michael McDowell (-32): The Spire driver missed an opportunity to gain ground at Sonoma and may need near-perfect finishes the rest of the way.
— Ross Chastain (-45): Chastain posted back-to-back top-10s entering Sonoma and will need continued improvement over the final stretch.
Chastain has shown marked improvement in recent races.
— Zane Smith (-61): Smith will need consecutive top-five performances to have any chance of returning to playoff contention.
— Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (-72): The Hyak Motorsports driver’s best hope remains a potential Daytona win to vault into the Chase.
— Riley Herbst (-84): The 23XI driver lost 26 points to the cutoff at Sonoma, extending his already steep challenge.
— Todd Gilliland (-87): The FRM driver’s season has been hampered by inconsistent results.
— John Hunter Nemechek (-91): The Legacy driver will attempt to build on recent improvements within an unforgiving playoff environment.
Little Or No Chance
While no driver is officially eliminated, these eight competitors face overwhelming odds to reach the playoffs.
— Austin Dillon (-121): The RCR driver is a realistic contender for wins at Richmond, Atlanta and Daytona, but even multiple victories may not suffice.
— Alex Bowman (-170): The Hendrick driver missed four races earlier this season due to vertigo. He has two top-five finishes and only one additional top-10.
— Noah Gragson (-180): The FRM driver has demonstrated speed in spots but has struggled to convert it into strong finishes.
— Josh Berry (-184): Berry knows he won’t return to the Wood Brothers car next season, making his final Cup series run potentially bitter-sweet.
Berry’s final season with Wood Brothers comes amid long odds for a playoff push.
— Cole Custer (-190): The Haas Automation F1 Team driver is still seeking his first top-10 finish of the season.
— Ty Dillon (-197): The Kaulig driver continues to search for his first top-10 of 2026.
— Connor Zilisch (-203): The Trackhouse rookie has failed to finish six of the 17 races contested this season.
— Cody Ware (-245): The Rick Ware Racing driver also seeks his first top-10 finish of the year.
O’Reilly Series:
Five races remain in the regular season, with 12 drivers advancing. Clinched: Justin Allgaier.
Truck Series:
Five races remain in the regular season, with 10 drivers advancing. Clinched: None.
