A new report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine supports the growing field of extreme event attribution science, which aims to quantify the impact of climate change on specific weather disasters. This research could provide crucial evidence for legal cases seeking accountability from fossil fuel companies for climate-related damages.
Extreme event attribution analyzes how human-induced global warming has intensified or increased the likelihood of events like heat waves, hurricanes, droughts, and wildfires. While scientists have long known that greenhouse gas emissions amplify certain weather extremes, advances in climate modeling and data analysis over the past two decades now allow for precise assessments of individual events.
The report highlights progress in attribution methodologies, including improved computer models and observational data. However, challenges remain in analyzing less predictable phenomena such as tornadoes and hailstorms. Additionally, limited historical weather records in developing nations hinder confident attribution studies in those regions.
One prominent case cited in the report involves a $50 billion lawsuit by Multnomah County, Oregon, which used attribution research to argue that a 2021 heat wave in the Pacific Northwest would have been “virtually impossible” without climate change. Critics, including fossil fuel industry advocates, have dismissed such studies as activist-driven, but the National Academies emphasizes that its reports undergo rigorous peer review and conflict-of-interest screening.
The 14-member committee behind the report represents diverse fields, including meteorology, law, and sociology. Their work updates a 2016 National Academies study, reflecting significant advancements in the discipline. The research was funded by the National Science Foundation, NOAA, and private foundations including the Bezos Earth Fund.
Current attribution methods often compare climate models of a world without human influence to real-world data, or analyze historical patterns to isolate human contributions. Emerging efforts focus on quantifying not just physical changes—like temperature increases—but also societal impacts, such as mortality rates and infrastructure damage. Climate physicist Davide Faranda calls this “the big, big, big way forward,” though he notes limited engagement from policymakers in applying these findings.
