NATO Chief confident UK will uphold defense spending commitments under potential new leadership

NATO’s secretary general has expressed confidence that Andy Burnham will honor the alliance’s long-term defense spending commitments, stating that the man expected to become the UK’s next prime minister recognizes how military investment can drive economic growth.

During a visit to London, Mark Rutte said he does not expect the UK to reach the alliance’s target of 3.5% GDP on defense by 2035 “in one big step” when its long-delayed defense investment plan is published on Tuesday.

However, he believes Burnham will support increasing UK defense spending by nearly £30 billion annually, noting that “from history, Labour prime ministers have demonstrated consistent commitment to NATO.”

Rutte, addressing Burnham as Keir Starmer’s likely successor, stated: “I can imagine that the new prime minister will be extremely interested in the issue of economic growth and more jobs. Defence spending does two things at the same time. First priority as a government is to keep the country safe, obviously number one. But also, the impact of your defence investments. Next to keeping the country safe and strong, is [the fact] it will create jobs.”

A dispute over the UK’s longer-term defense spending led to the resignation of John Healey as defense secretary earlier this month. He criticized the UK for moving too slowly to meet the 3.5% spending target.

He resigned partly because Starmer committed to spending only 2.68% by 2030, an increase of £2 billion from this year, leaving limited time to reach 3.5% by 2035—a target the UK endorsed at a NATO summit last year.

On Monday, Rutte tactfully noted that he expects the UK to make “a considerable figure and money commitment” in the defense investment plan as “a step on course to get to the 3.5% later.”

The 10-year defense investment plan encompasses more than £300 billion of major projects. After months of negotiations, a funding shortfall of £18 billion has been reduced to less than £4 billion, with the new Defense Secretary, Dan Jarvis, recently securing an additional £1 billion.

The NATO chief spoke to the Guardian in London after meeting with Starmer, Jarvis, and Yvette Cooper, the Foreign Secretary, ahead of next week’s NATO summit in Ankara, Turkey’s capital.

While Rutte had no contact with Burnham, who holds no formal government role beyond being a constituency MP, the message that increased defense spending could stimulate economic growth aligned with comments Burnham made that day in Manchester.

Speaking at the People’s History Museum, Burnham criticized that “UK public procurement policy has been based on chasing cut-price deals around the world,” adding that “every pound raised from taxpayers will work harder for them, and that approach will apply fully to the defense investment plan.”

Rutte, a former prime minister of the Netherlands, said he does not believe the UK will alter its defense policy under Burnham. “I’ve always seen the UK living up to its commitments over the years,” he said.

He noted that other countries are progressing more quickly toward their spending targets. Germany, he said, will achieve this “six years ahead of schedule” in 2029, though it too will do so incrementally.

The NATO chief also thanked Starmer for his efforts during their final meeting in Downing Street, crediting him with vigorously advocating for Europe and the world to remain engaged in Ukraine through military assistance and diplomatic support.

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