Sources close to Otzma Yehudit chairman Itamar Ben‑Gvir believe Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has already decided to try forming a broad national government after the election, even if that means leaving Ben‑Gvir outside the coalition.
According to these sources, Netanyahu’s shift from earlier promises of a “full, full right‑wing government” to talking about a “broad national government” signals a move toward a more centrist, statesman‑like stance this election cycle.
Ben‑Gvir’s circle argues that Netanyahu does not want to repeat a term where he appears as the coalition’s leftmost member with all partners to his right. They believe that if the election results allow, Netanyahu would prefer to bring in a figure from the opposing camp—potentially former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot—while keeping Ben‑Gvir out of government.
Ben‑Gvir’s associates see Netanyahu’s use of the phrase “broad national government” as a strategic signal, pointing out that this wording replaces earlier emphasis on a right‑wing cabinet.
They also cite Netanyahu’s campaign dynamics, noting his absence from the Altalena event with Ben‑Gvir and moves on surplus‑vote agreements that they interpret as efforts to widen the gap between Likud and Otzma Yehudit.
From their view, these actions reflect a broader effort by Netanyahu to retain flexibility for post‑election negotiations.
The assessment: Netanyahu will want to return to the center
Ben‑Gvir’s allies base their analysis on Netanyahu’s historical coalition patterns, arguing that the current all‑right‑wing government was an anomaly rather than his natural preference.
They reference 2009, when Netanyahu brought Ehud Barak and Labor into his government while the National Union remained in opposition.
In 2013, Netanyahu first reached agreements with Tzipi Livni, later forming a government that included Yesh Atid and Jewish Home, leaving haredi parties out.
According to Ben‑Gvir’s team, starting in 2015 Netanyahu’s maneuvering room narrowed due to political boycotts, forcing him into a narrow 61‑seat coalition and later adding Yisrael Beytenu.
The 2019‑2020 election period saw Netanyahu form a parity government with Benny Gantz, during which he halted major judicial reforms and gave the Justice Ministry to Blue and White’s Avi Nissenkorn.
Judicial reform could also be abandoned
Ben‑Gvir’s associates estimate that a move toward a broader government would likely require Netanyahu to drop flagship right‑wing initiatives, especially the judicial overhaul.
They argue that including a centrist or opposition party would demand compromises on the judicial system and could help Netanyahu present himself as a more statesmanlike leader, possibly mindful of his legacy as one of his final terms.
At the same time, they note that Netanyahu knows Otzma Yehudit could be a reliable right‑wing partner if a right‑wing coalition secures a majority. A government with Eisenkot, however, would be more complex and ideologically divergent.
If the right‑wing bloc wins 61 seats or more, leaving Ben‑Gvir out in favor of Eisenkot could be a risky bet for Netanyahu: a broader government may be less stable.
One scenario suggested by Ben‑Gvir’s aides is that even if a centrist partner later exits, Otzma Yehudit could be brought in to shore up the government’s durability.
If the right‑wing bloc fails to reach 61 seats even with Otzma Yehudit, Netanyahu’s team believes he would rather ally with an opposing party than face another election.
In their view, the key post‑election question is not just the bloc’s seat count, but how much freedom Netanyahu will have to choose his coalition partners.
The more options available, they contend, the greater the likelihood that Netanyahu will revert to his past pattern: forming a broader coalition with a balancing force to the left of Likud, rather than a purely right‑wing government where he is the most moderate member.
