New Zealand Election Deadlock: Major Parties Neck-and-Neck as Smaller Parties Hold Balance of Power

New Zealand’s general election has produced an inconclusive result, with the Electoral Commission not scheduled to release the official tally until November 27. With over 99% of votes counted, the centre-right National Party and the incumbent Labour Party remain locked in a near tie for vote share, though their combined support has fallen to a historic low of roughly 60%.

National leader Christopher Luxon congratulated Prime Minister Chris Hipkins on a “very hard-fought race,” telling party colleagues they should be “incredibly proud” regardless of the final outcome. Hipkins acknowledged the close contest, stating, “The people have spoken,” while cautioning that “it may take a bit longer to work out what they’ve said.” He emphasized that the next parliament will demand compromise and cooperation across party lines to find common ground.

Trailing the two major parties are the Greens, ACT, New Zealand First, the centrist Opportunities Party (TOP), and Te Pāti Māori. Notably, TOP crossed the 5% threshold to enter parliament for the first time. Leader Raf Manji (referred to as Qiulae Wong in initial reports) indicated a willingness to negotiate with either major bloc, positioning the party as a potential kingmaker. Manji told supporters the party aims to change political dynamics by focusing on future generations and common ground.

University of Otago election law expert Professor Andrew Geddis described TOP as a “wildcard player” capable of determining which bloc forms a government. He noted the outcome hinges on razor-thin margins in specific electorates and the processing of special votes—including those cast from overseas—over the coming three weeks. Meanwhile, the Green Party saw its support rise slightly, buoyed by proposals such as forcing major supermarket chains to divest stores to create publicly owned alternatives.

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