Nvidia Forecasts Fiscal 2028 Revenue Near $700 B, Overtaking Apple and Alphabet

NVIDIA’s CFO, Colette Kress, disclosed on August 26 that the company expects fiscal year 2028 revenue to grow by about 70%, well above the 44% consensus estimate tracked by LSEG. This marks Nvidia’s first-ever forward‑looking revenue forecast.

Applying this growth to the approximate $396 billion consensus for fiscal 2027 yields a fiscal 2028 revenue range of $673 billion to $700 billion. If realized, Nvidia would rank third among U.S. technology firms by sales, behind only Amazon. The projection follows a fiscal second‑quarter performance that far exceeded expectations, with total revenue climbing more than double to $96.22 billion (up 106% YoY) and data‑center sales reaching $89 billion (up 117%), now constituting 92% of overall revenue.

CEO Jensen Huang told investors that artificial intelligence has reached a stage where it performs productive, profitable work and that computing capacity is now directly driving revenue. The stock rose about 8.7% after the announcement, lifting the broader semiconductor sector. Management emphasized that the 70% growth rate reflects supply constraints—especially memory shortages—rather than a limit on demand, and the forecast does not include revenue from China’s data‑center market.

Bull Case

The current quarter delivered results, not just guidance. Revenue of $96.22 billion exceeded estimates by roughly $4 billion, and the 117% YoY surge in data‑center sales demonstrates that the AI build‑out is already generating historic growth, not merely a projected trajectory.

Nvidia’s customer base is diversifying, which could mitigate concentration risk. CEO Huang noted that demand now originates from hyperscale cloud providers, sovereign AI initiatives, neocloud platforms, AI startups, and enterprise customers, implying that future growth will be less dependent on any single large client’s spending.

Management indicated that underlying demand outpaces even this unprecedented forecast. Huang told analysts the unconstrained growth rate could be “a lot higher” than 70%, with memory supply being the current bottleneck, suggesting that Nvidia’s growth ceiling could expand as supply constraints ease.

The market’s positive reaction reflects broader confidence in the AI infrastructure cycle. Semiconductor peers such as Broadcom, SK Hynix, and Intel all rose alongside Nvidia, indicating that investors view the strength as sector‑wide rather than company‑specific.

Bear Case

Wall Street has expressed skepticism about the forecast’s reliability. Bernstein analyst Stacy Rasgon pointed out that the 70% growth figure translates to roughly a $200 billion increase versus Nvidia’s previous outlook, and because this is the company’s first forward‑looking guidance, there is no historical track record to assess its accuracy.

The projected growth is explicitly supply‑constrained, creating a mixed picture. Severe memory shortages are limiting output and pressuring margins heading into Q4, while server DRAM prices—already up 64% in the second half of last year—are expected to rise another 260% in 2026, posing a material cost risk even as top‑line revenue accelerates.

Nvidia is committing massive capital to secure supplies for AI demand. In a single quarter, the company’s supply commitments more than doubled to $279 billion, up from $119 billion, with most of the increase linked to memory procurement. Additionally, Nvidia spent $145 billion to lock in critical components. This creates substantial financial exposure should AI customers curb spending or suppliers be unable to meet demand.

Not all profit growth stems from chip sales. Nvidia recorded a $7.8 billion gain on equity investments this quarter, following a $15.9 billion gain the previous quarter tied to stakes in firms such as Intel and SpaceX. Consequently, a notable portion of net‑income growth reflects investment returns rather than core operating performance.

The forecast incorporates geopolitical risk, as the 70% growth guidance excludes revenue from China’s data‑center market. Nvidia’s access to this market remains tightly constrained, with approved shipments reportedly minimal. The outcome therefore hinges on how U.S.‑China chip policies evolve.

Hedge Fund Data

Insider Monkey’s database shows that 285 hedge funds held Nvidia stock in Q2 2026, up from 275 in Q1, with total holdings rising to $94.67 billion from $83.89 billion. AMD, Nvidia’s primary rival, experienced faster percentage growth, with 164 funds holding the stock (up from 134) and holdings value nearly tripling to $23.58 billion from $8.71 billion.

Conclusion

Nvidia’s robust revenue growth and an outlook that exceeds expectations confirm that demand for AI infrastructure remains exceptionally strong. Expanding customer demand and supply constraints provide the company with room to accelerate growth. Nevertheless, Nvidia’s massive supply commitments, rising memory costs, reliance on investment gains, and exposure to China introduce risks if AI spending decelerates or supply conditions worsen.

Overall, Nvidia is well positioned to capitalize on the booming AI market, but investors are looking for the company to translate this robust demand into steady, sustainable growth while navigating potential supply‑chain disruptions and geopolitical tensions.