Oil prices have receded to levels not seen since the onset of the conflict with Iran, as commercial shipping traffic gradually returns to the strategic Strait of Hormuz.
Brent crude, the global benchmark, briefly dipped below $72.48 (£55) per barrel—the price recorded just before the US and Israel initiated strikes on Iran on February 28—before settling slightly higher at $73.23.
Energy markets have experienced significant volatility since Iran responded to the attacks by effectively closing the strait, a vital corridor for global oil and gas shipments.
Prices have trended downward since June 17, when the US and Iran signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU). The agreement established a 60-day window for negotiations regarding Tehran’s nuclear program and other measures aimed at ending the hostilities.
Following talks between representatives in Switzerland last weekend, the US has partially lifted sanctions on Iranian oil exports as part of the effort to resolve the conflict.
Maritime intelligence firm Kpler reports a significant increase in the number of vessels traversing the Strait of Hormuz since the MOU was signed. Data indicates that 284 vessels have made the transit since June 18, although this volume remains well below the pre-war average of approximately 138 crossings per day.
According to Kpler, recent shipments passing through the waterway include crude oil, liquefied natural gas (LNG), fertilizer, and various other commercial goods.
In a joint statement on Monday, mediators from Qatar and Pakistan revealed that the US and Iran have established a dedicated “communication line” to avoid misunderstandings and ensure the safe passage of commercial vessels through the strait.
Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of maritime risk advisory firm Marisks, noted a “tremendous shift” in recent days, with a marked increase in vessel activity in the region.
Maniatis explained that while some ships can utilize a northern passageway with Iranian authorization, the US Navy has also provided guidance for a southern route designed to avoid mines and other hazards deployed during the war.
Despite these developments, traffic remains below pre-war levels, which typically saw more than 100 ships crossing daily. Hundreds of vessels are believed to be remaining stationed in the Gulf while waiting for further clearance.
