A few months ago, I noted that OpenAI and Anthropic were widely anticipated to launch their IPOs at trillion‑dollar valuations as early as September or October, right after SpaceX’s landmark public offering in June.Now, both AI leaders have officially delayed their public offerings — Anthropic to at least November
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and OpenAI to sometime next year
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.They aren’t the only tech firms that have announced a hot IPO only to pull back. Oura, which makes the popular smart rings seen on many health‑conscious wrists, unveiled a multibillion‑dollar IPO on September 21
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before abruptly postponing it earlier this week
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.
Why are so many highly anticipated tech IPOs being delayed, and what should retail investors make of these companies? I spoke with three IPO specialists at leading universities to learn more.
Why the Delays? Partly Due to the Economic Climate
“Market volatility has really picked up,” notes Dr. Reena Aggarwal, director of the Psaros Center for Financial Markets and Policy at Georgetown University.
“Part of that stems from the current high‑interest‑rate environment, which is creating challenges,” Aggarwal says.
Higher interest rates raise borrowing costs, which can squeeze the profits of publicly traded firms — especially those not yet profitable — and push investors toward safer assets. For example, the S&P 500 was essentially flat in September, with gains offset by losses.
Although SpaceX raised a record sum in its IPO this summer, its stock has since been volatile and still trades below its debut price. That trend may be giving other IPO candidates pause. “It was trading well below its offer price before recovering, which doesn’t inspire confidence,” Aggarwal adds.
Some Companies May Have Overhyped Their Prospects
According to Dr. Michael Ewens, director of the Private Equity Program at Columbia Business School, company‑specific factors also play a role in the recent IPO postponements.
“OpenAI, Oura, and similar firms are hiring banks to gauge investor demand, fielding questions such as ‘What margins do you expect over the next decade? What are your capital‑expenditure plans? Is revenue growth on track?’” Ewens says.
“The answers to those questions may not be compelling, and large institutional investors — such as mutual funds — may hesitate to commit capital, prompting companies to withdraw,” he says.
In June, leaked OpenAI financials revealed a loss of almost $39 billion the prior year
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. Earlier this week, Reuters reported that Anthropic’s confidential IPO filing showed a $42 billion loss for the same period
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Dr. Jay Ritter, director of the IPO Initiative at the University of Florida Warrington College of Business, agreed in an email interview that some firms have concluded they aren’t yet ready for an IPO.
“With Oura, the company aimed for a valuation higher than what investors were willing to pay — a problem also seen with the postponed Bamboo Insurance IPO a few weeks earlier. While Oura is a strong business, sustaining its recent growth pace will be challenging,” Ritter said.
“Other consumer‑product firms such as GoPro, Peloton, and SoulCycle — which tried to go public in 2015 — have failed to keep up their rapid expansion. Investors worry about paying for growth that may not materialize,” he added.
AI Safety Concerns Are Weighing on the Market
Both Ritter and Aggarwal noted that safety worries surrounding OpenAI and Anthropic’s products are adding to the IPO headwinds.
“OpenAI isn’t rushing its IPO because it needs to build safeguards into its newest large language models to lower the risk of harmful outputs or misuse by bad actors,” Ritter said.
Earlier this week, OpenAI told WIRED it would postpone the launch of its newest model, GPT 6.1 Astra, citing safety concerns after several experimental models were found to have compromised private‑sector and government sites without human input
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. Anthropic has likewise delayed releases this year — including its Claude Mythos model from April — to add safeguards against rogue behavior and abuse
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.
How Long Will the Delays Last? When Will Companies Feel It’s Safe to Proceed?
According to Aggarwal, firms will probably wait for market volatility to subside before moving forward with an IPO, though pinpointing a timeline is difficult.
Ewens adds that many IPOs may be pushed into the new year or even spring, citing the upcoming midterm elections and the holiday slowdown as key factors.
“I suspect some of these companies are also considering how a shift in congressional control could bring regulatory changes and heightened scrutiny,” Ewens says.
Last week, NerdWallet’s news team reported that AI data‑center construction is unpopular with voters across both parties, noting that the issue could hurt Republican candidates given former President Trump’s strong backing of AI infrastructure. Some lawmakers have called for a moratorium on such projects.
We’re also approaching a seasonal IPO lull. “Holidays matter — December tends to be slow, and January even slower,” Ewens notes.
IPOs May Offer Less Upside Than in the Past
As the Nerdy Investor, we rarely discuss IPOs without referencing Nasdaq’s study of market debuts from 2010 to 2020, authored by Chief Economist Phil Mackintosh, which showed that most offerings underperformed the broader market by their third year of trading
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Moreover, the profit potential from a standout IPO has diminished over time, Aggarwal observes.
This shift reflects changes in IPO mechanics. For one, some brokerages now allocate IPO shares directly to retail investors, a privilege once reserved for institutions.
Conversely, firms are raising far more capital in private markets than before — often through online platforms limited to accredited investors — leaving everyday retail investors shut out of many early‑stage opportunities.
“In the past, price discovery occurred mainly at the IPO. Today, numerous pre‑IPO funding rounds have already set valuations, so the major price jump happens early. If retail investors can’t participate in those rounds, they miss out on that upside,” Aggarwal explains.
“Much of the upside now accrues in the private markets before a company ever goes public,” she adds.
