Pakistani Fodder Growers Abandon Export Crops Amid US‑Iran Conflict‑Driven Shipping Surge

In Pakistan’s southern Mirpurkhas district, farmer Lakshman Das has uprooted his entire five‑acre Rhodes grass field and is now preparing the soil for wheat. The decision follows a sharp decline in export profitability caused by soaring shipping and insurance costs after the US‑Iran conflict erupted in February.

The war has driven container freight rates from Pakistan to key Gulf ports—Jebel Ali, Abu Dhabi, Dammam, Riyadh, Muscat, and Kuwait—upward dramatically. Freight for a 20‑foot container has risen roughly 320‑fold to about $8,000, while rates for 40‑foot containers have jumped 220‑fold to around $11,000. Insurance premiums have also surged, pushing total container costs from Rs 200,000‑Rs 250,000 (≈$722‑$903) before the conflict to Rs 1.5 million‑Rs 1.6 million (≈$5,418‑$5,781) after it.

Exporters face additional penalties. Sarfaraz Ali Junejo, chairman of the Pakistan Hay Association (PHA) and CEO of GRJ Agro Pakistan, reported that 50 of his company’s containers were stranded after a vessel was hit in a war zone, incurring demurrage fees of up to Rs 3 million (≈$10,824). He noted that shipping costs alone now consume a large share of export margins.

The impact on farmers is evident in price declines. Irfan Mahmood, manager of GRJ Agro, said that current fodder rates average Rs 27,000‑Rs 30,000 per ton ($97‑$108), roughly half the Rs 56,000 ($202) per ton achieved before the conflict. “We used to get the right price; now we are getting a lower price,” Das recounted.

According to the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics, fodder exports generate more than $100 million annually. However, a Topline Securities analysis shows a 49 % drop in export value during July‑September 2026, falling to $15.5 million from $30.1 million in the prior quarter.

GRJ Agro, which cultivates over 700 acres in Sindh, has already cleared about 150 acres of Rhodes grass, converting roughly 100 acres to wheat and another 40‑50 acres to sugarcane. The company is retaining some land for Rhodes grass pending a potential improvement in export conditions.

Pakistan cultivates fodder on approximately 150,000 acres, primarily in Sindh. PHA data indicate that about 5 % of this area has been uprooted so far, though the situation could worsen if shipping conditions do not improve by March, when farmers decide on their next planting cycle.

Regional authorities are responding to the crisis. Sindh’s deputy director of agriculture extension, Imran Ali Kumbhar, acknowledged the growers’ difficulties and confirmed that the provincial government is providing a subsidy of Rs 4,000 ($14.46) per acre to small farmers during the Rabi season (October‑April) to support wheat cultivation.

Shankar Talreja, head of research at Topline Securities, warned that fodder export prospects remain uncertain, as overseas demand is concentrated in the Middle East, a region currently facing economic contraction and higher oil prices.

Das remains hopeful that wheat and other seasonal crops will recoup some of the lost income. “We will plant other small crops as well, so that we can make some profit,” he said.

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