Pakistani Wheat Farmers Pivot to Cheaper Fertilizer Amid Middle East Conflict‑Driven Price Spike

MIRPURKHAS – Pakistani wheat farmers are reducing their use of a critical fertilizer after a 23 % price increase triggered by the Middle‑East conflict, jeopardizing harvests in a nation already grappling with insufficient wheat production to satisfy domestic demand.

Diammonium phosphate (DAP), a fertilizer essential for developing robust wheat root systems and promoting growth, has experienced a steep price hike as the conflict hampers Gulf shipments and inflates production expenses.

A 50‑kg bag now sells for Rs17,183 (≈$62), an increase of Rs3,174 (≈$12) from the Rs14,009 (≈$51) level recorded before the US‑Israeli war with Iran began on 28 February, according to Fauji Fertilizer Company, Pakistan’s only DAP producer. Retail prices are reportedly even higher, hovering around Rs18,000 (≈$65).

For Muneer Ahmed, a wheat grower managing nine acres in Jhurby village, Mirpurkhas district, Sindh province, the escalating cost has forced a switch to a less expensive alternative.

“We cannot afford DAP and are using 23‑23 instead,” Ahmed told Arab News, referring to nitrophosphate (NP), a fertilizer identified by its nutrient ratio.

NP costs approximately Rs10,500 (≈$38) per bag, about 42 % lower than DAP. Ahmed, however, worries that the substitution could substantially diminish his yield.

“If NP yields 25 maund per acre, DAP would deliver 45–50 maund per acre,” he estimated.

One maund equals 40 kg. Actual yields vary with soil health, fertilizer use, and other variables, but Ahmed’s figures illustrate the tough decisions confronting farmers as the wheat‑planting season looms.

The price surge stems from disruptions in Strait of Hormuz traffic—a critical conduit for Gulf exports—since the conflict erupted, curtailing fertilizer shipments and inflating both international prices and raw‑material costs for fertilizer production.

Pakistan is especially exposed to these hikes because it imports roughly half of the DAP it uses. Of the estimated 1.5 million tons consumed each year, about 800,000 tons are domestically produced, according to Insight Securities, a Karachi‑based brokerage.

“Our domestic DAP prices follow import parity pricing; thus, any rise in international DAP costs is mirrored locally,” explained Minal Ali, a research analyst at Insight Securities.

Demand for fertilizer is already softening. DAP sales dropped 3 % to 775,000 tons in January‑September 2026 relative to the same period the previous year, Insight Securities reported, citing data from the National Fertilizer Development Center.

FEWER ACRES, SMALLER HARVESTS

Beyond the immediate fertilizer cost, farmers face broader financial strain. Elevated fertilizer prices, together with increasing fuel and transport expenses, are compelling some growers to scale back the amount of wheat they plan to cultivate.

Muhammad Iqbal, senior vice president of the Farmers Organization Council, manages roughly 600 acres in Mirpurkhas but intends to sow wheat on fewer than 50 acres this season, following losses on over 100 acres last year.

“Right now, landowners are anxious about planting wheat,” he said. “The first requirement we have is DAP fertilizer.”

DAP provides phosphorus, a vital nutrient for root development and overall crop growth. Iqbal noted that farmers usually require two bags per hectare to attain target yields, yet many can no longer purchase the recommended amounts.

“Applying a single sack of DAP reduces yield by 30 to 35 maunds per acre,” he observed.

Insufficient fertilization could lower yields to approximately 20–25 maunds per acre, though the exact impact depends on prevailing growing conditions.

Retail fertilizer outlets are reflecting the growing pressure as well.

“Previously, customers bought DAP freely; now they inquire about prices and depart without purchasing,” reported Mukhtar Ahmed Khan, a Mirpurkhas retailer.

For Iqbal, fertilizer costs represent just one facet of the uncertainty. Skepticism about government wheat procurement policies and the prices farmers will actually receive has further dampened planting enthusiasm.

The Ministry of Food has set a minimum wheat support price of Rs4,500 (≈$16) per 40 kg, yet Iqbal expressed doubt that farmers will receive that rate in practice.

PRESSURE ON WHEAT SUPPLIES

Diminished fertilizer application and reduced cultivated area may exacerbate Pakistan’s existing challenge of generating sufficient wheat to satisfy domestic demand.

In July, the government approved the import of one million tons of wheat following shortages and escalating flour prices that disrupted supplies in several regions.

The Federal Committee on Agriculture had targeted 29.7 million tons of wheat for the 2025‑26 winter season, yet May estimates placed output at 27.5 million tons as cultivated area and yields fell short of expectations.

A further dip in production would heighten Pakistan’s reliance on wheat imports, intensifying fiscal pressures on a nation already confronting economic challenges.

Minal Ali of Insight Securities cautioned that reduced DAP usage could compromise wheat productivity and drive greater import reliance.

Agricultural officials in Sindh acknowledge the mounting difficulties faced by growers.

“Omitting DAP as a basal dose will negatively impact yields per acre,” explained Imran Ali Kumbhar, deputy director of the Mirpurkhas agriculture extension department, referring to fertilizer applied at planting.

The provincial administration has launched a subsidy of Rs4,000 (≈$14) per acre for smallholders cultivating between one and 25 acres, Kumbhar reported.

Approximately 300,000 farmers have enrolled in Sindh, with registration still open for the ongoing winter cropping season.

Nevertheless, for growers like Ahmed, who also grapple with elevated fuel and transportation expenses, the subsidy may only partially offset the overall financial strain.

“We are anxious about the war’s impact on our livelihoods,” he said.

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