Published on 18/07/2026 – 13:08 GMT+2
After a brief cooling spell, Germany stayed on the cooler side of a high‑pressure ridge. However, the heat has not vanished; it is currently building over Spain and France and may soon return to Germany.
Dominik Jung notes that Germany is currently on the cooler side of the high, with the warm air lingering west of the country’s borders. Forecast models indicate that the Azores high will again expand into central Europe, with the leading edge of the warmth expected to reach western and southwestern regions by the end of next week.
Temperatures could reach 30 °C or higher across much of the nation. The earliest plausible return of the heat would be by the following weekend, although this remains uncertain because a front between air masses might develop over Germany, affecting both the timing and intensity of the forthcoming warm surge.
Cool-down feels more extreme than it is
After the heatwave, current temperatures feel unusually cool.
A north‑westerly flow combined with an upper‑level trough drives temperatures below 30 °C in many regions, and locally beneath 20 °C in areas with thunderstorms.
Jung emphasizes that the perception of cold stems primarily from the stark contrast with the preceding extreme heat.
The preceding hot spell was truly exceptional: at the end of June, temperatures peaked at 41.7 °C, establishing new national records. The heat‑warning period, lasting roughly twelve days, also ranked among the longest since the DWD heat‑warning system began in 2005.
Severe thunderstorms mainly in the south
The current weather shift heightens the risk of intense thunderstorms, especially in southern and south‑eastern Germany, notably the upland areas of Bavaria, Baden‑Württemberg and parts of Saxony. Severe storms are also possible along the air‑mass boundary that could develop across central Germany.
Forecasters caution that localized severe weather—including torrential rain, hail and gusts of gale force—could occur in these regions. While thunderstorms may also develop in northern and central Germany, they are expected to be less intense.
“Summer keeps snapping back”
What distinguishes this summer is the remarkable persistence of the weather pattern. As Jung observes, “What surprises me most is how stubborn the pattern is.” After each cooling spell, the high‑pressure system rebuilds remarkably quickly.
Summer essentially re‑enters a heat‑dominant mode repeatedly.
A notable characteristic is the pronounced variability among different weather models. Some simulations indicate extreme values, and at times the U.S. model has projected outliers reaching as high as 47 °C—about 20 °C above the average of many model runs.
Such large swings are uncommon; they illustrate how subtle atmospheric disturbances are currently challenging forecasting accuracy.
Longer-term trend stays warm and dry
In the coming weeks, the prevailing signal remains a warm and dry trend. Following this unsettled period, many models anticipate a strengthening of the high‑pressure system.
From around 21 July, temperatures are expected to range between 28 °C and 34 °C, with some locales reaching up to 38 °C, implying a resurgence of heat days, near‑desert conditions and tropical nights. Dryness is likely to become more pronounced in many areas.
Nevertheless, long‑range forecasts retain considerable uncertainty. Jung notes, “A trend is not a precise forecast; beyond a week, the spread is large.” The farther into the future the outlook extends, the broader the range of model outcomes becomes.
The only certainty is that summer shows no intention of retreating.