Robinhood branding visible at a media event held at John F. Kennedy International Airport in New York on March 4, 2026.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
Robinhood is poised for a notable increase in prediction‑market revenue as the upcoming football season kicks off, according to a Wednesday note from Piper Sandler.
Earlier this summer, the World Cup sparked a surge in prediction‑market activity, suggesting that strong performance could continue into the football season, according to analyst Patrick Moley.
“Given Kalshi and HOOD’s U.S.–focused user base and the considerable popularity gap between soccer and American football, we see the World Cup’s explosive volume as a leading indicator of what’s ahead — the NFL/NCAA football season should act as a major catalyst for HOOD’s Q3‑2026 and Q4‑2026 prediction‑market revenue,” he wrote.
Launched in June, Rothera is a prediction‑market joint venture between Robinhood and Susquehanna. It operates as a derivatives exchange and clearinghouse overseen by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The optimistic outlook follows Robinhood’s confirmation that Rothera has secured CFTC approval to offer football contracts covering wins and spreads, according to Piper Sandler.
Accordingly, Moley raised his 2026 and 2027 earnings‑per‑share forecasts for Robinhood by 5% and 7%, respectively, and increased his price target to $145 from $135, implying roughly 35% upside from Wednesday’s closing price. He also maintained his overweight rating on the stock.
Step aside, Kalshi
While Robinhood continues to showcase Kalshi’s markets to its users, Moley estimates that approximately 23% of prediction‑market volume has moved from Kalshi to Rothera since June.
“Robinhood’s migration to Rothera has sped up the erosion of its share of Kalshi’s trading volume,” Moley said in the Wednesday note. “During last year’s football season, HOOD users accounted for 22% to 30% of the total volume on Kalshi; that share has now fallen to the mid‑single digits as Kalshi works to attract more of its own users,” he added.
From June through August, Robinhood’s average monthly prediction‑market volume climbed 88% compared with the January‑May period, driven largely by heightened activity during the World Cup, Moley noted.
To project Robinhood’s prediction‑market revenue for the second half of the year, Piper Sandler used Kalshi as a benchmark.
The firm’s analysts forecast that from September through December, Robinhood users will trade about 29.7 billion event contracts, generating roughly $320 million in revenue — equivalent to an annualized run‑rate of $960 million.
Football won’t be as dominant on Kalshi
Football represented 42% of Kalshi’s total trading volume during the 2025 season, with the platform processing approximately $14 billion in NFL and NCAAF contracts, according to Piper Sandler.
This time, Moley does not anticipate football‑related contracts on Kalshi to dominate overall volume, given the broader range of non‑sports offerings now available.
“Major sports accounted for only 54% of Kalshi’s product mix in August 2026, a sharp decline from the 83% peak reached in November 2025,” the note stated.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
