Post-IPO Outlook: Key Catalysts and Volatility Risks for SpaceX Stock

Following a high-impact market debut, investor attention is now shifting toward a dense schedule of upcoming events for Elon Musk’s aerospace, internet, and AI conglomerate. As the sixth-largest listed company in the U.S. by market capitalization, SpaceX faces several critical milestones over the next two months—including the introduction of options trading, the expiration of lock-up periods, and index inclusions—all of which could drive significant price volatility.

While the initial offering was expertly executed and saw robust demand from both retail and institutional investors, a central debate persists regarding the company’s fair market value. Analysts are questioning whether SpaceX’s strong brand marketing aligns with its actual financial fundamentals.

“The question is whether people are investing in SpaceX or simply trading it,” noted Todd Schoenberger, chief investment officer at Crosscheck Management. “Many money managers, myself included, believe it is the latter.”

Several key factors are expected to shape the stock’s trajectory in the coming weeks:

Options Trading
Options trading for SpaceX is expected to launch as early as Tuesday. This activity is anticipated to be heavy and volatile, as options provide a low-cost way for traders to speculate on price swings. If the stock mirrors the volatility of Tesla, it could see fluctuations nearly double those of the average equity, further fueling options volume.

Expiration of Sale Restrictions
According to company filings, SpaceX plans to implement a staged system allowing a significant portion of shares to be resold before the standard six-month post-IPO restriction period, contingent on company performance. While this strategy aims to prevent a sudden flood of shares from destabilizing the market, it may spread volatility across a broader window. Additionally, some brokers have implemented their own minimum holding periods. Jake Dollarhide, CEO of Longbow Asset Management, warned that selling pressure may mount as these 31-day minimums expire.

The Greenshoe Option
The IPO includes a “greenshoe” option—a stabilization mechanism common in large U.S. listings. Morgan Stanley has the option to purchase an additional 15% of shares (approximately 83 million) at the IPO price of $135 per share within the first 30 days. Because these shares were not initially issued, the bank must manage this through short positions on the open market before purchasing the shares from the company.

Earnings Reports
While a date has not yet been set, the upcoming earnings report will likely reignite discussions over SpaceX’s $2 trillion valuation. Critics point to the company’s financial gap, specifically a $4.94 billion loss against $18.7 billion in revenue last year. “There is a strong argument that SpaceX is severely overvalued and that its valuation is driven primarily by Elon Musk’s reputation,” Dollarhide added.

Index Inclusion
SpaceX is slated for inclusion this month in major indices, including the Nasdaq 100 and various MSCI and Russell large-cap indexes. Such inclusions typically force institutional funds to purchase shares, which often drives the stock price higher.

However, this “democratization” of ownership raises concerns regarding passive investing. Kevin Moss, co-creator of the Private Shares Fund, noted that many individuals will find themselves owning SpaceX through 401(k)s and target-date funds without making a conscious decision. “The flip side is that you own it regardless of whether you agree with the valuation,” Moss said.

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