Prediction Markets Show Drastic Drop in Chance of California Billionaire Tax Appearing on Ballot

California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks during the Munich Security Conference (MSC) in Munich, Germany, February 13, 2026.

Liesa Johannssen | Reuters

According to data from the prediction‑market platform Kalshi, the probability that a proposed billionaire tax will be placed on California’s November ballot fell sharply from 88 % to 35.5 % within the last week.

The steep decline followed recent reports from Politico and Bloomberg News that Governor Gavin Newsom is actively working to prevent the measure from qualifying for the November ballot ahead of a June 25 deadline.

The measure, supported by the Service Employees International Union – United Healthcare Workers West, would impose a one‑time 5 % levy on the net worth of billionaires.

The union contends that the tax would provide critical funding for the state’s health‑care system in the wake of substantial federal cutbacks.

“The tax would apply only to Californians with a net worth exceeding $1 billion—approximately 200 individuals holding a collective wealth of $2 trillion,” the union’s website states.

The union also submitted over 1.5 million voter signatures, well above the 875,000 threshold needed to place the bill on the ballot.

Newsom’s opposition to the measure is seen in the context of his serious consideration of a future presidential run.

Earlier this week, he accused former President Donald Trump of directing the Department of Justice to investigate him and his wife.

In a post on X, Newsom stated that Trump’s actions were motivated by his own consideration of a presidential campaign.

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