Rangers’ Early Surge Decoded: Lafreniere’s Breakout and Shesterkin’s Vezina-Form Return

Neither Alexis Lafreniere nor the New York Rangers could ask for a more favorable opening than they have received through the early stretch of the season.

The organization began the year with a 4-2-0 record through their first six contests, securing victories against several high-caliber opponents. For the first time in quite a while, it feels as though Alexis Lafreniere is a player they can truly rely on. Through the first six games, he recorded four goals—three of which came in a 5-2 win over the New York Islanders—along with two assists.

The question for both remains whether those numbers are sustainable.

For the team, it takes little genius to understand the root of this early-season winning. Goaltender Igor Shesterkin has returned to Vezina-worthy form after merely being good behind a disorganized team last season. He finished seventh in Vezina voting, and the entire campaign was a thankless effort.

Now, he has allowed eight goals in five starts while facing 109 shots. Is a .924 save percentage something the Rangers can count on, between Shesterkin and Dylan Garand? It is not, especially considering Shesterkin seemingly picked up a serious injury against the Washington Capitals on Friday.

But Shesterkin has a long track record of being one of the best goaltenders in the world, and it would hardly be a surprise if he were a Vezina finalist once again in April.

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So it must be said that most teams making the playoffs—especially those that do it despite being a relatively low pick in most standings predictions—get there because of goaltending. But Shesterkin isn’t Dan Vladar, coming out of nowhere with a great season for the first time in his career. Put another way, the Rangers recently made him the highest-paid goalie in the league, and he is showing them that investment was not made in vain.

And if Shesterkin playing extremely well strikes Rangers fans as familiar, so should their 5-on-5 play. It’s not great. They get outshot, and they can’t really control play. A familiar story for the last decade or so.

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But this is a roster issue more than a coaching issue, and Mike Sullivan, having a pretty good track record, seems to have shifted things around. They’re less of a high-possession team than they used to be, and that probably plays into their strengths. Certainly, if you can limit shots against to around the 24-mark they’ve achieved so far, and your goalie is going to provide a save percentage around .920 on a long timeline, you’re going to win a lot of games.

Otherwise, this is a team that looks pretty average in a lot of offensive areas, but Lafreniere has certainly been a leader in that regard. He leads the team in scoring, is third on the team in shots, and second in attempts. It’s also worth noting that two of his goals are empty-netters.

Again, four of his points in this young season came on Tuesday against the Islanders, a team that similarly didn’t get a lot of positive notice in the pre-season. So while the per-game numbers are good, this is why we talk about sample sizes. It’s more sustainable to score one or two points every game than to wait for the one big cash-out opportunity.

The good news is that he’s getting a lot more run-out from Sullivan this season, having finally found a way to move up the depth chart.

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If you look at his average time on ice, at 19:04, that’s a pace that would obliterate his previous career high of 17:36, set last season. It’s not so much more than what Lafreniere got post-Artemi Panarin trade last season (18:43), but you can’t say he isn’t playing well and making the most of his opportunity.

A huge chunk of his year-over-year time-on-ice growth is on the man advantage, up to another career high of 3:14 this year (actually down slightly from the 3:21 he averaged after the Panarin trade). He scored his first power-play point with a goal against the Capitals, and the Rangers have two goals in his 19:24 of PP time, which should continue because it necessarily has to.

Enough to justify this much time on ice? Well, maybe the Rangers just don’t have many better options.

So that four-goal and six-point start is smoke-and-mirrors, for sure. But you can’t say he’s not getting an opportunity to show why the Rangers took him first overall once upon a time, and he will probably have to do more of it to keep getting the ice time he’s getting. Driving the offense when you beat the Islanders is nice, but the one point in the first four games is a point of concern. Hopefully, for his sake, he’s turned the corner.

But as long as the Rangers keep limiting chances and getting this kind of goaltending—crossing fingers that Shesterkin’s injury isn’t as bad as it looks—they’re not going to need a ton of offense to keep winning games. And after their recent stretch of tough seasons, they’ll take the Ws any way they can get them.

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