Report: AI Poised to Trigger Historic Productivity Surge Unless Regulation Stifles Innovation

A new report challenges prevailing artificial intelligence “doomsday” narratives, contending the technology could spark one of the most significant productivity booms in U.S. history — provided Washington resists the urge to impose premature regulatory constraints.

The study, titled “Boomsday Not Doomsday” from the pro-growth advocacy group Unleash Prosperity, frames AI as a transformative force distinct from standard software tools. It argues the technology stands to lower the cost of expertise, broaden access to critical services, and elevate living standards across the economy.

“Because of AI, we are headed toward the single greatest productivity revolution in American history,” said Stephen Moore, co-founder of Unleash Prosperity. “There is almost no question about it.”

Skeptics caution that AI carries substantial risks, including workforce displacement, cyber vulnerabilities, disinformation campaigns, and misuse by malicious actors. Some experts warn that a competitive rush to deploy AI systems may prioritize speed over safety.

Rows of servers glow inside a data center. The new report argues AI could spark one of the biggest productivity booms in American history. (iStock / iStock)

The report details how AI could enable physicians to devote more time to patient care, allow educators to tailor instruction, help construction firms reduce delays, improve manufacturing precision, and equip small businesses with advanced capabilities.

“AI makes routine cognitive work cheaper,” the report states. “These incremental improvements add up to enormous benefits when doctors, teachers, contractors, and other professionals spend more of their day on real work and less on paperwork and bureaucracy.”

Moore highlighted housing affordability as a key area for impact.

“The cost of building a home will be cut in half due to AI,” Moore said. “There is a lot of talk about affordability and how nobody can afford to buy a house. If you cut the cost of building a house in half, suddenly it becomes far more attainable.”

The analysis pushes back on fears of mass job elimination, noting that similar alarms accompanied previous breakthroughs such as the tractor and the personal computer.

“Every major invention of the last 100 years has made the American economy more productive and led to more jobs, not less,” Moore said.

A warehouse worker stands among stacked boxes. The report says AI could automate routine tasks while creating higher-value roles for workers. (iStock / iStock)

The report cites agriculture as a historical parallel. In 1900, nearly 40% of the U.S. workforce labored in agriculture; today, that figure is below 2%, yet output has surged. Moore argues AI could similarly transition workers into new, higher-value roles rather than eliminate work entirely.

Moore suggested anxiety around AI often stems from an outsized focus on hypothetical risks.

“I think people are afraid,” he said. “There is a kind of fear that this is going to be like ‘The Terminator’ in the future, and people are looking at the potential risks, not the incredible advances in human welfare from technology.”

Adoption data underscores the velocity of the shift. More than half of U.S. adults have used generative AI within three years of its mass-market debut, a pace exceeding the early adoption curves of both personal computers and the internet.

A medical professional fills out a patient chart. The report says AI could help doctors spend less time on paperwork and more time with patients. (iStock / iStock)

“This is as big as the invention of the wheel. It’s as big as the invention of electricity. It’s bigger than the internet,” Moore said. “It’s going to make life on Earth better, but we need to make sure America leads.”

Moore emphasized that the U.S. cannot afford to decelerate while China accelerates its own AI development and deployment.

“The race is on. Let’s win the race,” Moore said.

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