Rising Temperatures Pose Escalating Risks to Global Transport Infrastructure

According to a new report from the UN Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) titled Assessment of Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation for Inland Transport: Towards climate resilient transport systems, extreme weather is expected to severely impact roads, railways, waterways, ports, and airports between 2051 and 2080.

“The current extreme heat episode in western Europe has highlighted climate risks and the consequences on transport,” a UNECE spokesperson informed UN News.

These consequences are already visible. UNECE notes that heat-related delays and cancellations in countries such as France, the United Kingdom, Denmark, and Belgium are being driven by buckling asphalt, rail deformation, failing onboard air conditioning, malfunctioning traffic lights, and river navigation bottlenecks. Additionally, traffic slowdowns are being implemented to mitigate kinetic stress on expanding tracks, alongside issues with melting and overheating cables and signaling systems.

Key findings

The report highlights several critical findings:

• Primary risks to transport systems include flooding, extreme temperatures, rising sea levels, and a reduction in snow, ice, and permafrost.
• Transport infrastructure is projected to face 10 to 50 additional days per year with temperatures exceeding 25°C. Some regions may see up to 200 days above this threshold, increasing the likelihood of wildfires near infrastructure, rail deformation, thermal expansion of bridge joints, and pavement deterioration.
• Recent data suggests that 71 to 89 per cent of the world’s ports will be at risk from extreme marine storms by 2100.
• By 2100, approximately five million Europeans and their vital transport networks could face near-annual coastal flooding.

‘Dramatic consequences’

The report warns that failing to act could lead to soaring economic losses.

“Transport systems are vital for the smooth functioning of our societies and economies,” stated UNECE Executive Secretary Tatiana Molcean, adding that “disruptions can have dramatic consequences on communities and come at huge financial cost.”

To illustrate the scale, the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season caused $232 billion in total damages, with port-specific losses reaching $7.5 billion annually. The annual systemic risk to global trade, maritime transport, supply chains, and economic activity is estimated at $122 billion and $81 billion, respectively.

Grim projections

Regional projections are similarly concerning, with intense rainfall expected in areas already prone to extreme weather, such as the Alps, the Balkans, the western coast of Norway, northern Türkiye, parts of Central Asia, the United States east coast, and coastal British Columbia.

These conditions will likely increase the frequency of landslides, drainage overloads, embankment failures, and infrastructure washouts across road, rail, and inland waterway networks.

Furthermore, European railways face heightened disruption risks from signaling overheating and track deformation. Between 2050 and 2080, 90 per cent of the European E-rail network is projected to experience an additional 10 days with temperatures above 25°C compared to the 1970–2000 period, as well as an additional 10 days with temperatures exceeding 32°C.

Adaptation ‘is an imperative’

The report emphasizes that adaptation efforts provide significant advantages, such as protecting operational continuity, safeguarding investments, reducing economic losses, and boosting productivity.

“Because extreme weather events are no longer a future risk but a reality today, adaptation of transport infrastructure is an imperative,” noted UNECE chief Molcean.

Data from the World Resources Institute (WRI) supports this, suggesting that every dollar invested in climate adaptation generates over $10.50 in social, environmental, and economic benefits.

In light of worsening climate trends, the report:

• Urges the strengthening of adaptation initiatives at all levels.
• Encourages both public and private sectors to prioritize building resilience into transport infrastructure.
• Highlights the importance of an iterative adaptation process that analyzes current challenges, assesses future impacts, and implements resilience-building measures.
• Recommends utilizing policy and legal frameworks to bolster resilience, mitigate financial losses, and reduce operational risks.

Tools to tackle temperature events

The report also identifies specific inland transport nodes and networks within the region that require targeted attention.

It includes various temperature and precipitation projection maps at different thresholds, designed to assist transport professionals and governments in understanding shifting conditions and performing local-scale vulnerability analyses.

Check out the maps here.

What is actually working?

The UNECE report also examines ongoing national mitigation strategies:

• France: Through a national adaptation plan and warming trajectory initiative, the country is preparing for temperature increases of up to +3°C by 2100. This includes a vulnerability assessment of 21,073km of national roads and an adaptation strategy for 3,000 train stations.
• Germany: Following a rockfall that closed a major European freight route for seven weeks, a climate impact analysis of mass movements and hillslope debris flows was conducted. This utilized high-resolution hazard maps to help rail operators prioritize protective measures.
• Portugal: An assessment of the 42km Mondego Mobility System identified adaptation strategies for wildfires, landslides, and floods. This led to the deployment of drainage systems designed for 100-year flood flows and high-temperature resilient pavements.

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