Water disputes can directly trigger conflict, but more commonly, water scarcity functions as a catalyst — one that, when compounded by other pressures, significantly elevates the risk of instability. While water has influenced human conflict for millennia, the scale of strain on freshwater systems today is unprecedented. The convergence of climate change, rapid population growth, mass human migration, and the escalating demands of agriculture and industry is placing extraordinary pressure on water resources, threatening to deepen existing vulnerabilities. Nevertheless, the growing body of evidence around governmental cooperation in managing scarce resources demonstrates that water-driven conflict is not an inevitable outcome.
Water scarcity contributes to the risk of conflict in many parts of the world. Four experts were consulted to identify key risk areas where water disputes are intensifying the potential for conflict across Africa, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Latin America over the next one to two years.
Marcus King
Professor of the Practice in Environment and International Affairs, Science and Technology in International Affairs Program, Georgetown University
The Sahel — Africa’s semi-arid belt extending from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea — faces severe climate pressures, including prolonged drought and accelerating desertification, alongside deepening security challenges. These converging stressors have intensified farmer-herder conflicts by degrading pastures, diminishing water access, and disrupting traditional transhumance migration routes. More than 15,000 people have been killed in the Sahel and surrounding regions since 2010. While water scarcity contributes to this violence, tribal, sectarian, and ethnic divisions further compound disputes over resource access.
Violent extremist organizations are expanding their reach across the region and may increasingly weaponize water by seizing control of wells, imposing taxes on access, targeting water users, or denying supplies to hostile communities. Worsening insecurity further obstructs effective water policy implementation, critical infrastructure maintenance, and conflict resolution efforts. According to forecasts, severe localized drought over the next one to two years in the Sahel remains a plausible scenario, placing additional strain on already fragile water systems and communities.
