Romanian Border Communities Brace for Escalating Drone Incursions as War Edges Closer

ISACCEA, Romania — The phone alerts sound first, followed moments later by the thunder of explosions across the water.

For Robert Marian, a 48-year-old resident of Isaccea, a small Romanian town in eastern Tulcea County along the Danube River, the Russian drone strikes landing just hundreds of meters away on the Ukrainian bank have become a relentless source of dread.

“There are alerts warning us that something is coming,” Marian told The Associated Press. “It happened two weeks ago, maybe three. I was asleep at midnight… One was quieter, but another was really loud. I got scared and ran out of the house.”

As Russia’s war in Ukraine persists, drone incursions into Romanian airspace have surged. The blasts echoing across the Danube underscore how close the conflict has encroached on NATO territory, raising fears that President Vladimir Putin may seek to test the alliance’s resolve.

On September 1, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that a border crossing with Romania had been “deliberately damaged… as well as export infrastructure.” Romanian customs officials announced the same day that operations at the Isaccea-Orlivka crossing were temporarily suspended.

Alina Mihail, another Isaccea resident, describes a visceral reaction to the warnings and explosions reverberating from across the border.

“I have so many nights where I don’t sleep anymore,” she said. “I live in terror, me and my husband.”

Data from Romania’s Ministry of National Defense reveals a threefold increase in drone incursions this year compared to all of 2023 — 27 incidents versus nine — and more than double the number of drones and debris recovered on Romanian soil, rising to 37 from 16.

This year alone has seen 73 attacks near the border on Ukrainian territory, prompting the scrambling of 56 military aircraft to “monitor and manage the situation.” By contrast, 2023 recorded 28 such attacks and 21 scrambles, while the war’s first year saw only one.

In May, a drone crashed into an apartment block in the eastern city of Galați, injuring a mother and child. Last week, a drone entering from Moldova was tracked across several Romanian counties before re-entering Moldova and crashing in a sunflower field.

Moscow has denied sending combat drones into Romanian territory.

The escalating threat — widely attributed to Russia by officials — compelled the NATO member to shoot down four drones this year, marking the first such interceptions since the war began.

Across Europe, NATO allies have accused Moscow of orchestrating a campaign of “hybrid warfare,” citing drone incursions, sabotage, an attempted attack at a German airport, and a Danish helicopter targeted with flares in the Baltic Sea.

NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte warned on September 2 that “Russia has grown increasingly reckless” as its war continues.

“We have seen more drones and missiles crossing into our airspace, along our eastern flank, creating increased risk,” Rutte said. “The dangers Russia poses are clear.”

Last week, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk disclosed that CIA Director William Burns had briefed him on intelligence suggesting Europe should brace for intensified Russian provocations, particularly along the European Union’s eastern flank.

Romanian Defense Minister Radu Miruță told The Associated Press that Russia constitutes a “primary, significant threat” to the eastern flank and Romania, per both the National Defense Strategy and NATO assessments.

“We are engaged in discussions regarding the capabilities needed to counter this common threat — facing the same risks as Poland and the Baltic states — and we are coordinating to ensure these capabilities are distributed in a way that allows for interconnection,” he said.

Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, NATO reinforced its eastern flank by deploying additional multinational battle groups to Romania, Hungary, Bulgaria, and Slovakia.

Last year, the United States reduced troop deployments to Eastern Europe, including Romania, after adjusting its military posture — a move officials insisted did not signal diminished commitment to the alliance.

Miruță noted that over 1,000 U.S. troops are currently stationed in Romania, a figure higher than after last year’s rotation. “We have a solid relationship,” he said. “The security dynamics along the eastern flank are highly fluid.”

Regarding NATO’s Article 5 collective defense clause, Miruță said discussions “can take various directions,” but emphasized Romania has no intelligence indicating an imminent or likely ground invasion.

“From this perspective, we can rest easy,” he said. He added that Romania’s threat environment is distinct due to Russia’s frequent strikes on Ukraine’s Danube River ports, mere meters across the natural border.

“Once the border is crossed, the distance involved is merely tens of meters, leaving very little reaction time,” Miruță explained. “In contrast, in the Nordic countries, targets are tens of kilometers away, providing a sufficiently comfortable window for various forms of intervention.”

Live fire across the border remains visible and audible in border communities, keeping residents on edge.

“We see the drones coming, we see them heading toward those ports,” Miruță added. “Most stop there, bombarding port infrastructure, but we cannot know if any might cross over to the other side… If one does cross over, our communities… would be at risk.”

In response, Romania and Poland have acquired the MEROPS counter-drone system, which deploys short-range interceptors. The defense ministry also announced last month the receipt of €2.5 billion — the first tranche of a €16.6 billion allocation from the EU’s Security Action for Europe program.

In June, the ministry signed a $2 billion contract with an Israeli firm for short- and very-short-range air defense systems “designed to protect against aerial threats, including drones and cruise missiles.”

President Nicușor Dan stated at the Ankara summit that defense spending would reach up to 3.7% of GDP this year. He added that Romania joined NATO’s Drone Edge project, which aims to invest over $40 billion in counter-drone capabilities over the next five years.

Back in Isaccea, Mihail says she and her husband shelter in place when alerts warn of potential airspace breaches.

“We have no support, no one to help us,” she said.

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McGrath reported from Leamington Spa, England.

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