Swakopmund, Namibia, 27 August 2026: The Southern African Development Community (SADC), via its Climate Services Centre and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services, has issued the regional climate outlook for the 2026/27 rainy season, showing a higher chance of below‑normal rainfall over much of the central and southern area, while the north and northeast are expected to see wetter conditions.
For October‑November‑December (OND) 2026, below‑normal rainfall is expected across much of Angola, southern Zambia, Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Namibia, Botswana, most of South Africa, Eswatini and Lesotho. Normal to above‑normal rainfall is projected for parts of the north, with above‑normal rainfall anticipated over eastern DRC, most of Tanzania, the far northern reaches of Malawi and Zambia, and Seychelles.
As the season advances, the dry signal is likely to continue over much of the central and southern zone. During January‑February‑March (JFM) 2027, below‑normal rainfall remains probable across Angola, Namibia, Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia and parts of South Africa. Conversely, normal to above‑normal rainfall is forecast for much of the north, especially above‑normal rainfall over eastern Tanzania and the Comoros.
The temperature outlook points to a greater chance of above‑average temperatures across most of the SADC region, although some central areas may experience cooler‑than‑usual conditions.
A major influence on the 2026/27 rainy season is the emerging El Niño in the tropical Pacific. El Niño conditions are already in place and are forecast to intensify through the second half of 2026, reaching strong to very strong levels, with a peak expected around the OND 2026 period. Historically, strong El Niño episodes raise the odds of below‑normal rainfall across large swaths of central and southern SADC, though other climate factors also play a role.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral at present, but forecasts show a strong chance of a positive IOD forming and lasting through OND, before fading back to neutral early in 2027.
The outlook was issued after the Thirty‑Third Southern Africa Regional Climate Outlook Forum (SARCOF‑33), convened in Swakopmund, Namibia, from 25 to 28 August 2026, which gathered climate specialists from SADC member states, the SADC Climate Services Centre and international partners.
The SADC Climate Services Centre will keep issuing regional climate updates, and the National Meteorological and Hydrological Services will deliver detailed country‑specific forecasts and advisories. Stakeholders and users are urged to monitor the latest sub‑seasonal, monthly and short‑range forecasts throughout the 2026/27 rainy season.
The complete statement is attached below.
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