On Sunday, citizens of Sao Tome and Principe will choose a new president, preceding parliamentary elections scheduled for late September. For the island nation of roughly 245,000 inhabitants, the votes represent a pivotal domestic political moment. Yet the polls are also drawing rising scrutiny from the international community.
Since concluding a military cooperation pact with Russia in April 2024, the Gulf of Guinea archipelago has seen renewed geopolitical interest.
The central question is whether Russia aims to broaden its footprint in the South Atlantic via the islands, or whether the accord is mostly symbolic, with Sao Tome and Principe simply upholding its longstanding practice of engaging a diverse set of global partners.
Sao Tome and Principe: More strategic than its size suggests
The former Portuguese colony, situated near Gabon and Equatorial Guinea, celebrated 51 years of independence on July 12. Although among Africa’s smallest states by territory and population, its position grants it strategic weight well beyond its dimensions.
The archipelago sits on the equator in the Gulf of Guinea, a zone traversed by major shipping lanes and rich in oil and gas. Concurrently, piracy, organized crime, and the security of maritime trade have made the gulf a critical flashpoint.
“Sao Tome and Principe is a small country, but because of its geographical location in the Gulf of Guinea, it has enormous strategic importance,” former Foreign Minister Elsa Pinto told DW.
“Major commercial and military routes pass through our waters. Even during the colonial era, our archipelago was of great importance because of its location between Africa and South America.”
Pinto said the country’s location had been a strategic asset for centuries.
“Sao Tome was first a major center for sugar production, later the world’s largest cocoa producer and also an important hub in the trans-Atlantic slave trade. That geostrategic importance has never disappeared.”
A military agreement with geopolitical implications
In spring 2024, Sao Tome and Principe drew global attention when it emerged that the government had signed an open-ended military cooperation deal with Russia.
According to Russian officials, the agreement covers military training, technical assistance, cooperation on arms and military equipment, intelligence sharing and reciprocal visits by naval vessels and military aircraft. A separate accord was also signed between Russia’s Interior Ministry and Sao Tome and Principe’s national police force.
Amid Russia’s war in Ukraine, the pact was closely monitored in Europe and the United States. Portugal and the US have long ranked among the nation’s key security and development allies.
Then-Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada defended the deal.
“We are an independent and sovereign country. Nobody can tell us how we should deal with Russia,” he said at the time.
‘Timing was the real issue’ with Russia deal
Political analyst Arzemiro dos Prazeres, a former politician and ex-parliamentary president, argues the agreement’s significance is often exaggerated.
“The agreement between Russia and Sao Tome and Principe has remained largely ineffective,” he told DW. “It was signed, but it has never been implemented. Nothing has actually been put into practice.”
He therefore views much of the international criticism as misplaced.
“I agree with former Prime Minister Patrice Trovoada. This is a perfectly ordinary military agreement, similar to those Sao Tome and Principe has signed with the European Union, Brazil, Angola or Portugal. The real issue was the timing of the agreement, which triggered considerable controversy.”
Russia has markedly expanded its military and security presence across several African states in recent years. But unlike Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger or the Central African Republic — where Moscow has concentrated on security operations — Sao Tome and Principe’s value lies chiefly in its Atlantic positioning.
Balancing partnerships
Elsa Pinto dismisses claims that her country is drifting from the West.
“Sao Tome and Principe wants to maintain good relations with all countries — the United States, Europe, Russia and China alike.”
She said the country’s foreign policy remains rooted in non-interference and in the principles of the African Union and the United Nations.
“We will not abandon our values and principles. Our international partnerships are above all intended to support the country’s development,” she said.
For that reason, she does not expect the elections to yield any major foreign policy shift.
“Very little will change. Sao Tome and Principe will continue cooperating with both Western and Eastern partners,” Pinto added.
That approach reflects the country’s diplomatic evolution. After independence in 1975, Sao Tome and Principe initially aligned closely with the Soviet Union under a Marxist system. Following the adoption of multiparty democracy in the early 1990s, it gradually deepened Western ties while keeping relations with a wide array of nations.
Incumbent Carlos Vila Nova heavily favored to win
Four candidates are contesting the presidential race, but observers view incumbent Carlos Vila Nova as the clear favorite after former Prime Minister Jorge Bom Jesus exited, citing an “avalanche of criminal falsehoods” and a climate of “division and political tension,” according to RFI.
Vila Nova has run on political stability and national unity. His rivals, by contrast, demand a generational change in politics and broader debate on the nation’s future.
Political analyst Arzemiro dos Prazeres believes Vila Nova is strongly positioned to prevail.
“I therefore expect the election to be decided in the first round, making a runoff unnecessary,” he said.
Under the semi-presidential system, the president wields substantial constitutional powers, including appointing the prime minister, vetoing legislation, dissolving parliament and serving as commander-in-chief of the armed forces.
The European Union is again deploying an election observation mission. Its chief observer, Portuguese MEP Sergio Humberto, said the mission seeks to help ensure a transparent and peaceful process.
A small nation amid great-power rivalry
Whether the Russian military pact signals a real foreign policy reorientation or merely pragmatic diversification of partnerships remains contested. One fact is evident: international interest in the country is intensifying.
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For Sao Tome and Principe, the aim is to secure investment, development aid and security cooperation from as many partners as possible.
Russia views the archipelago as a chance to extend its Atlantic presence. Europe and the United States, meanwhile, see it as a stable democratic partner in a strategically vital region.
Thus the approaching presidential and parliamentary elections transcend domestic politics. They unfold as even the world’s smallest states become stages for great-power competition.
For Sao Tome and Principe, the task is to sustain its carefully balanced foreign policy — and with it, its diplomatic latitude.
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