Six Months After Iran Conflict, Nearly Half of Global Oil Supply Originates from War‑Torn Regions

By Seher Dareen, Anushree Mukherjee and Robert Harvey

LONDON Aug 25 (Reuters) – Nearly half of the world’s oil originates from countries experiencing conflict in 2026, according to Reuters calculations, highlighting that current disruptions have surpassed earlier energy crises.

Six months ago, U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran ignited the biggest oil‑supply shock on record, with no clear resolution in sight.

Meanwhile, the Russia‑Ukraine war has curtailed production and refining, including in Kazakhstan this year.

Persistent fighting in Libya and U.S. limits on Venezuelan oil exports at the year’s start have added further pressure.

Together, the conflict‑affected nations produced about 45 million barrels per day of oil based on 2025 output, representing more than 43 % of global supply, Reuters estimates using International Energy Agency data.

The disruptions have heightened reliance on U.S. oil, although that source has also faced occasional setbacks from severe weather.

Not all of this year’s supply interruptions occurred simultaneously.

With Saudi Arabia diverting oil via the Red Sea and Gulf exporters smuggling crude furtively through the Strait of Hormuz, analysts estimate the current Gulf oil disruption at roughly 5 to 7 million barrels per day.

Nevertheless, risks to total flows remain elevated, as demonstrated by attacks in the Red Sea and near Egypt’s Suez Canal in July.

The Gulf and Ukraine conflicts have also trimmed global refining capacity by about one‑tenth.

Ukraine has struck much of Russia’s refining network, hitting plants as far as Omsk, roughly 2,700 km (1,680 miles) from Ukrainian‑held territory.

Russia is confronting fuel shortages and has barred gasoline and diesel exports, tightening worldwide fuel markets.

Rising fuel prices have become a major inflation driver, contributing to higher borrowing costs and helping push U.S. debt to a record $40 trillion.

U.S. diesel prices have reached record highs even as refiners operate at peak capacity.

The IEA has drawn record volumes from emergency stockpiles to ease the supply shock; those releases are now largely finished, even as global inventories continue to fall.

(Reporting by Robert Harvey and Seher Dareen in London, Anushree Mukherjee in Bengaluru: Editing by Mark Potter)

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