President Donald Trump on Sunday praised a framework agreement between the United States and Iran intended to halt hostilities in the Gulf, which have throttled commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz for over three months.
The agreement, slated for signing on Friday in Switzerland, reopens the strait to vessel traffic without tolls, lifts the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports, and permits Tehran to resume oil exports under limited sanctions relief.
The framework also prolongs the existing ceasefire for at least 60 days and initiates broader negotiations concerning Iran’s nuclear program.
However, unlike reopening a highway after a car accident, restoring prewar oil, gas, and container traffic through this critical chokepoint presents substantial challenges.
Greek maritime risk management agency MARISKS cautioned in a Monday research note that the framework agreement should be seen as the beginning of a de‑escalation process rather than an immediate return to normal trading conditions.
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When can Gulf shipping safely resume?
Assuming attacks from both the US and Iran have ended for good, Iran must first find and clear the naval mines it deployed during the conflict to make the waterway passable once again
Most could be located fairly quickly using minesweepers, underwater drones and sonar. But some mines may have drifted or be hard to find, say maritime experts.
The process could take 40 to 50 days, according to maritime security sources cited by Reuters news agency on Monday.
Jakob Larsen, chief safety and security officer at shipping association BIMCO, told Reuters that Hormuz transits right now would be “very risky” and called for “mine-free routes” to be established.
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War-risk insurance is still a major hurdle
Even after the mines are cleared, shipping firms will seek substantially lower war‑risk insurance costs for Hormuz transits before confidence is restored.
Currently, premiums remain very high — ranging from 1% to 4% of a vessel’s value per transit — compared with prewar rates below 0.1%, according to a New York Times report.
For a typical $200 million (€172 million) tanker, the added cost per transit ranges from $2 million to $8 million, versus less than $200,000 before the war.
Lloyd’s List reported on Monday that an unnamed Singapore‑based insurance underwriter described the premiums as “quick to rise and slow to fall.”
Anoop Singh, global head of shipping research at Oil Brokerage Ltd, warned that shipowners would weigh the risks against their own risk tolerance.
Singh told Bloomberg that Japanese, Korean and Chinese owners are less tolerant of high risk, whereas Greek owners have a different appetite — suggesting some may prepare for the challenge.
When can stranded ships start moving?
Once safe corridors are established in the strait, hundreds of commercial vessels and their crews, stranded for months throughout the wider Gulf, can resume operations.
Bloomberg cited data from commodity intelligence firm Kpler indicating that 300 fully loaded vessels are currently anchored in the Gulf, with an additional 250 empty vessels awaiting loading once the strait reopens.
In the nearby Gulf of Oman, an additional 300 empty tankers are waiting for permission to enter the Gulf.
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Staffing those vessels could pose another challenge, with an estimated 20,000 seafarers still aboard stranded ships, according to the UN’s International Maritime Organization.
The UN agency also confirmed that 14 crew members have been killed in attacks, about half of whom were from India — the third‑largest source of seafarers after the Philippines and China.
Amid growing reluctance among crews to serve in the Gulf region, India’s Directorate General of Shipping ordered employment agencies on Sunday to restrict deployments to conflict zones.
Damaged energy facilities and a return to normal
Gulf nations can now begin to ramp up oil and gas production, though this will require safety inspections of facilities, repairs to damaged infrastructure, and a phased return of workers and maintenance crews.
A full restart will depend on restoring shipment schedules, securing sufficient tankers, and convincing international buyers that energy flows are reliable once more.
Neil Shearing, group chief economist at UK‑based Capital Economics, projected on Monday that it would take until the end of September for roughly 80% of Hormuz energy flows to resume.
Shearing warned that natural gas flows “will be slower to return,” noting damage to Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub, where attacks reduced export capacity by about 17% and are likely to persist for several years.
What else could halt regional progress?
The biggest unresolved issue surrounding the US‑Iran framework agreement is that it remains merely an outline for negotiators to achieve a lasting end to the conflict.
Looking ahead, the United States insists on a permanently toll‑free strait, whereas Iranian officials have mentioned service fees and retaining control of the waterway, including that of neighboring Oman.
With broader issues — such as Iran’s nuclear ambitions, sanctions relief, and Tehran’s support for groups like Hezbollah and the Houthis — still unresolved, analysts see a real risk of further attacks.
Emboldened by its leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, Iran may continue to test boundaries, while Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has stressed that Israel is not bound by the agreement.
He warned that Israel will continue to act in self‑defense, raising fears that unilateral strikes could quickly unravel the fragile framework.
Edited by: Tim Rooks
