The war-torn country of Sudan stands at a critical juncture as concerns escalate over the likelihood of renewed mass atrocities. According to recent reports, the strategically vital city of El-Obeid in North Kordofan is increasingly becoming the nexus of intense military activity. The United Nations Security Council, multiple European countries, and the United States have issued urgent warnings about the looming threat of widespread violence, citing the growing presence of Rapid Support Forces (RSF) troops encircling the city.
It is broadly believed that the RSF is mobilizing for a large-scale ground operation aimed at retaking El-Obeid, which has been firmly held by the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) since February 2025. This military confrontation forms part of a broader civil conflict that erupted in April 2023 between Sudan’s two principal military leaders: General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan of the SAF and General Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo of the RSF. Since then, hostilities have split the nation along ideological and territorial lines, with the SAF controlling the northern and central regions, including Khartoum, while the RSF maintains influence in western Darfur and parts of southern Sudan.
Sudan, historically abundant in oil and gold, also boasts extensive agricultural resources, yet the ongoing conflict has transformed it into the world’s foremost humanitarian and displacement crisis. UN data indicates over 14 million individuals have been internally displaced or fled the country, with casualty estimates ranging from 40,000 to 250,000 people. Accurate reporting remains challenging amid the persistent violence and logistical barriers.
Why Is El-Obeid Under Siege?
El-Obeid, a city of approximately 500,000 residents, lies at a strategic crossroads connecting central Sudan, Khartoum, and the Darfur region. This critical location facilitates troop movements and logistical supply routes, making it a prime target. The city also hosts a significant SAF military installation and an airfield, further attracting attention. Control of El-Obeid could provide substantial benefits: urban infrastructure, access to lucrative gum arabic trade networks, and the potential to establish a strategic forward operating base for drone operations.
Drones have become increasingly pivotal in the Sudanese conflict, with international reports indicating over 1,000 civilian fatalities caused by drone strikes between January and May 2026. However, experts caution that advancing the war effort during the upcoming rainy season presents significant operational challenges. “Should the RSF wish to extend their reach into other regions, they would be wise to establish a forward operating base closer to their targets, mitigating the complications posed by the rainy season for drone deployments,” said Hager Ali, a specialist at the GIGA Institute for Global and Area Studies.
Grim Parallels to Past Atrocities
International concern has deepened, with UN Secretary-General António Guterres cautioning that the horrors witnessed in el-Fasher must not be replicated in El-Obeid. The city of el-Fasher became infamous following an 18-month RSF siege that culminated in the massacre of approximately 6,000 residents in October 2024, an incident characterized by the UN as bearing the hallmarks of genocide. This history of violence has spurred fears that similar atrocities could unfold in El-Obeid under the same extremist conditions.
Accountability and the Call for Action
Human Rights Watch’s Philippe Dam underscores the urgency of international accountability, asserting that naming and sanctioning the RSF’s leaders, along with their supporters, is critical for curbing further violence. He emphasized that the United Arab Emirates should specifically face consequences for its alleged backing of the RSF’s policies, despite their official statements denying such involvement. Additional allies of the SAF include Egypt, Turkey, Russia, and Iran.
Dr. Amgad Fareid Eltayeb, serving as the political and diplomatic advisor to Sudan’s transitional government, echoes these sentiments, highlighting the cyclical nature of international inaction. “The declarations of concern continue to ring hollow without concrete preventative measures,” he remarked, citing the pattern of outrage followed by civil indifference that allowed the previous crisis in El-Fasher to spiral.
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Justice, Accountability, and International Pressure
Last month, both Generals al-Burhan and Dagalo – whose competing claims to national authority complicate prospects for peace – were sanctioned by the U.S. Additional punitive measures have targeted key figures within both factions. The European Union has also enacted sanctions against specific individuals and entities. However, international bodies have refrained from imposing sweeping sanctions against the RSF or SAF themselves.
