Sweden’s Pivotal Election: Voters Grapple with Migration, Crime, and Economic Strain

Swedes head to the polls Sunday as Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson’s center-right party trails the center-left Social Democratic Party, led by former Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson. The election is dominated by concerns over mass migration, crime, and the economy.

“Years of gang violence, Islamist extremism, persistent unemployment, and pressure on public services have intensified the debate over whether integration has kept pace with immigration,” foreign policy expert and author Daniel Schatz told Fox News Digital.

Sweden Democrats party leader Jimmie Akesson addresses an election campaign event at Sjodalsparken in Huddinge, near Stockholm, on Aug. 18, 2026, as part of his party’s national campaign tour ahead of Sweden’s upcoming general election in September. (Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP via GettyImages)

Following Germany’s AfD victory in a state election last week, Sweden’s hard-right Sweden Democrats are positioned to enter government if Kristersson’s party wins again. The Associated Press reports that the anti-immigration party has shifted toward the political mainstream and is likely to secure cabinet posts. Thus far, it has supported the Kristersson government from the outside.

The Associated Press reports that the Sweden Democrats were founded by activists in far-right-wing extremist groups, including neo-Nazis. However, under leader Jimmie Åkesson, the party toned down its rhetoric and expelled racist members. Åkesson, who has led the party since 2005, is credited with the success of what was once a marginal party.

Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson trails in polls as Sweden holds its general election on Sept. 13 to elect members of its parliament, the Riksdag. (Kristian Tuxen Ladegaard Berg/NurPhoto)

Sweden, once a model of the Western social welfare state, has faced economic strain, forcing governments from both the left and the right to restructure the welfare system. While social benefits remain extensive, Sweden’s welfare state has changed amid rising crime rates, though expectations for public benefits remain high.

“Sweden went from being described as a ‘humanitarian superpower’ to a ‘humanitarian basket case,’” added Schatz, who is Swedish. “Discontent with migration policies extends to both foreign-born and native-born residents. Shootings have declined sharply, but fewer shootings do not mean the integration problems are solved.”

Gang violence has rocked parts of Sweden over the last few years. (Oscar Olsson/TT NEWS AGENCY/AFP via Getty Images)

Kristersson’s government took power in 2022, as the nation experienced a dramatic rise in gun-related violence. The country witnessed 391 shootings resulting in 62 deaths, according to The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention, a government agency under the Ministry of Justice.

The homicide rate in Sweden has risen since 2013, when gun homicides contributed to a general increase in the nation’s total homicide rate. The Swedish National Council for Crime Prevention notes that Sweden’s homicide rate ranks very high compared with other European countries, at approximately four deaths per million inhabitants per year, compared to a European average of approximately 1.6 deaths per million.

Swedes go to the polls on Sunday in a closely watched election race. (Fredrik Sandberg / TT News Agency / AFP via Getty Images) / Sweden OUT)

Immigration is another major issue dovetailing with voters’ concerns over crime and gun violence. Like much of Europe, Sweden experienced a wave of immigration in 2015 from those fleeing the Syrian civil war and the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Sweden took in over 160,000 asylum seekers that year, representing 12% of all those who sought protection in the EU, according to Sweden’s Migration Agency.

“After the 2015 influx of asylum seekers from Syria and other war-torn countries strained its reception system, Sweden began tightening its borders. The current government has taken that shift much further,” Schatz said.

Election campaign posters featuring Swedish Prime Minister and Moderate Party leader Ulf Kristersson are displayed in central Stockholm, Sweden, on Sept. 7, 2026. (Jonathan NACKSTRAND / AFP via Getty Images)

Kristersson’s parliamentary ally, the right-wing Sweden Democrats, filled the void in the anti-immigration position in parliament. Nicholas Aylott, a professor of political science at Södertörn University in Stockholm, told Fox News Digital that the link between increased immigration and rising crime changed Swedish politics.

Magdalena Andersson of the Social Democrats leads the polls against the incumbent Prime Minister, Ulf Kristersson. (Anders Wiklund/various sources / AFP via Getty Images) / Sweden OUT)

“Migration and law-and-order became much higher electoral priorities,” Aylott said. “The Sweden Democrats based their pitch on them. The other parties, rather belatedly, adapted their positions. The Sweden Democrats had at first been completely ostracized by the other parties, but they were gradually accepted as a legitimate partner by three of the other parties of the right between 2018 and 2022.”

As the anti-immigration backlash rose and the Sweden Democrats gained more influence in the policymaking process, Sweden cracked down on immigration and made it harder to seek asylum.

While asylum claims dropped and gun violence was dramatically reduced—with only 158 shootings and 44 fatalities to date—the government still risks defeat at the hands of Andersson’s center-left coalition.

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