Tactical Voting Could Propel Labour to Majority as Reform Slides to Fourth Place

A surge in tactical voting among progressive voters could relegate Reform UK to fourth place in the next general election while bringing Labour close to a working majority, according to a major new poll.

The survey, conducted by Survation and the campaign group 38 Degrees, indicates growing willingness among voters to set aside their preferred party in favour of supporting the strongest candidate locally. This trend appears to be drawing left-leaning voters back toward Labour under Prime Minister Andy Burnham, driven in part by opposition to Nigel Farage’s Reform movement.

Based on responses from over 8,000 voters, the findings suggest that Labour’s most effective path to electoral success lies in uniting the centre-left bloc, capitalising on divisions within the Conservative and Reform alliances. This approach contrasts sharply with Keir Starmer’s strategy ahead of the 2024 election, which sought to court more traditionally conservative demographics.

Released ahead of Labour’s annual conference in Liverpool, the poll reflects a notable shift in voter sentiment since April, with twice as many respondents returning to Labour from the left as from the right. The data includes a detailed seat-by-seat projection model (MRP) based on current polling trends.

Under the baseline scenario, Labour is projected to emerge as the largest party in Parliament with 272 seats—a slim margin over other parties—but still short of an outright majority. Capturing 42% of parliamentary seats with just 28% of the popular vote underscores the disproportionate impact of electoral geography.

Reform UK would occupy the official opposition benches with 153 seats, mirroring its 24% share of the vote. The Conservative Party trails significantly, securing only 85 seats and dropping to third place overall.

Approximately 200 constituencies are classified as tight marginals—won by fewer than five percentage points. In these battlegrounds, small swings of two to three points could determine up to 100 seats. Notably, a higher proportion of voters in these marginal areas express openness to tactical voting than what national polling suggests.

Should voters choose to lend their support strategically in key races, Reform’s dominance would erode substantially. For instance, if an additional 18% of undecided voters in pivotal constituencies opt for tactical voting, Reform’s seat count could drop to 62, while Labour gains enough to reach 319 MPs—six short of forming a majority government.

In this enhanced tactical scenario, nearly half of the 91 seats where Reform’s lead diminishes would transition to the Conservatives (46), with the remainder favouring Labour (43). However, analysts caution that such projections remain preliminary given the extended timeline until the next election.

Among the most vulnerable constituencies for Reform are The Wrekin, Torridge and Tavistock, and North West Cambridgeshire—all currently deemed likely Reform holds but projected to flip under increased tactical coordination.

In Rawmarsh and Conisbrough, Labour’s shadow chancellor John Healey previously secured victory with 49% of the vote in 2024, finishing 20 points ahead of Reform. While the baseline MRP model gives Reform a 51% chance of winning this seat, tactical realignment boosts Labour’s likelihood to 76%, highlighting the potential impact of coordinated voter behaviour.

In Bassetlaw, tactical alignment threatens Reform despite a projected increase in its vote share—from 35% to 40%. Labour’s gains, rising from 32% to 40%, coupled with declining support for the Liberal Democrats, Greens, and Conservatives, would shift the seat’s outcome firmly in Labour’s favour—from a 77% probability of a Reform win to a 58% chance for Labour.

Similarly, in Newark—an area represented by former Conservative MP Robert Jenrick, who has since defected to Reform—the model predicts a Conservative gain under both scenarios. However, with strategic backing from Labour voters aiming to prevent Jenrick’s re-election, the Conservatives’ odds improve dramatically from 68% to over 99%.

Damian Lyons Lowe, chief executive of Survation, emphasised the complexity involved in modelling tactical voting but noted clear patterns emerging from the data. “Roughly four in ten voters are backing a party unlikely to finish in the top two in their constituency,” he said. “While only half indicate they would actively switch allegiance, this represents a significant reservoir of swing voters ready to influence outcomes.”

Lowe added: “If these voters act collectively, our projections show Reform falling from second to fourth place nationally, shedding roughly 90 seats—even if its overall vote share rises. Rather than collapse, Reform risks being systematically outmaneuvered by coordinated efforts across the left and right.”

Despite the promise of tactical voting, the analysis also reveals inherent limitations, particularly in Labour-held seats like Southend, where progressive alliances may face resistance due to entrenched partisan loyalties. These dynamics complicate broad assumptions about cross-party collaboration.

Nonetheless, the data shows Labour is steadily reclaiming defectors from smaller left-wing parties, with the proportion of former Labour supporters migrating to the Greens, Liberal Democrats, Plaid Cymru, or the SNP declining from 60% to 46% since April. On the right flank, migration to Reform or the Conservatives has similarly decreased from 27% to 24%, suggesting stabilising party allegiances.

Veronica Hawking, director of campaigns at 38 Degrees, observed a more optimistic tone among voters compared to the previous year’s Labour conference. “There’s renewed energy and hope,” she said. “Yet expectations are high. Burnham must respond swiftly.” She highlighted economic concerns as a unifying issue: “Across the political spectrum, voters agree—the cost-of-living crisis will define their next vote.”

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